Arab Votes and the Cost of Netanyahu's Survival

Approaching the 26th Knesset elections, Israeli polls indicate a near-tie between two blocs: one led by Benjamin Netanyahu, projected to win 51-52 seats, and another led by Eisenkot, expected to secure 52-53 seats. Neither bloc is forecast to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government without the support of Arab parties, which hold an estimated 12-14 seats. The Israeli opposition fears openly accepting support from these parties, as Netanyahu is already exploiting this in his campaign, demonizing the votes of Palestinian citizens of Israel and portraying them as a security threat.

To form a government distinct from Netanyahu's, the opposition requires the backing of Knesset members from Palestinian citizens of Israel. While a majority of Israelis oppose this, the possibility remains due to some Arab parties lacking firm stances on supporting either bloc, citing a perceived lack of fundamental differences between Netanyahu's camp and the opposition, particularly on security and military policies. These issues are deemed critical for the post-election period, with expectations that neither bloc will be able to form a government, potentially leading to new elections and Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister amidst escalating political and social division.

Both blocs are likely to negotiate with Arab parties for their votes and support. Youssef Jabareen, head of the Common List, stated on October 9 that their stance on supporting Netanyahu's rival would be determined post-election based on results and the opposition's political programs. Knesset Member Ahmad Tibi also noted the possibility of cooperating with anti-Netanyahu forces on parliamentary steps, even without a coalition agreement. These positions are not final, and while Arab parties may influence negotiations if no bloc forms a government, their role might not be decisive in coalition formation itself, but rather in tipping the scales.

However, the priorities for Palestinian citizens of Israel lie in securing their land and demands, including confronting Netanyahu and his allies, whom they accuse of seeking to compensate for failed wars with increased settlement expansion, ethnic cleansing, and displacement. They perceive Netanyahu's continued leadership as an existential threat, given his adversarial stance. Eisenkot has outlined conditions for joining his government: recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, support for military or alternative civilian service, acknowledgment of the 1948 Declaration of Independence, and forming a Zionist government without ruling out the potential use of votes from Arab parties. These parties are acutely aware of the dangers posed by Netanyahu's prolonged rule, including the continuation of failed wars against Gaza, southern Lebanon, and Iran. While the votes of Palestinian citizens of Israel could shift the current balance, Netanyahu's continued presence is seen as a significant risk to them and the broader Palestinian cause.