Ultra-Orthodox Education Poised to Become Israel's Largest

Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) education may become the largest educational stream in Israel for first graders within four years, surpassing the state-secular system, according to a new study. The research, conducted by Eli Morgenshtern, a former senior official in the Treasury's Budget Division, analyzes official Ministry of Education data. The study indicates a significant shift: between 2023 and 2026, the number of first graders in the state-secular system is projected to decrease by approximately 12%, while the Haredi system is expected to see an 11% increase. The state-religious and Arab education systems are predicted to maintain their relative proportions.

Further projections suggest that by 2028, Haredi and Arab children combined could constitute a majority in Israeli kindergartens. Their combined share in kindergartens rose from 43.8% in 2019 to an estimated 48.9% in 2026, with a forecast of 50.4% by 2028. This trend contrasts sharply with demographic forecasts made in 2017 by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), which predicted the Haredi population would reach one-third of Israel's total and half of all Jewish children only around 2065.

Morgenshtern attributes this rapid change to a decline in birth rates within the general Jewish population, while other population groups maintain high fertility rates. He noted that a 2023 CBS forecast for state-secular kindergarten enrollment in 2025 was about 13% higher than the actual number, a discrepancy of roughly 23,600 children. Conversely, Haredi enrollment exceeded projections.

Morgenshtern, who grew up in the Haredi community and studied at the Mir Yeshiva in Jerusalem until age 28, later pursued economics and public policy degrees and worked in the Treasury. He acknowledges the values and lifestyle taught in the Haredi education system but points out significant challenges for graduates seeking higher education or professions requiring general knowledge. He argues that the chances for a graduate of a Heder or Yeshiva to bridge these gaps and earn a high school matriculation certificate, let alone a bachelor's degree in a marketable field, are very low.

Based on these demographic shifts, Morgenshtern proposes reforms, including expanding the state-Haredi education system, transferring state responsibility for student placement, curricula, and teacher employment, and minimizing public funding for non-state institutions. He suggests establishing hundreds of new state-Haredi schools, potentially by converting existing institutions, while adapting curricula to Haredi beliefs and culture. He also references the 1953 State Education Law by David Ben-Gurion, which unified separate educational streams, as a model.