Ultra-Orthodox Education May Surpass State-Secular in Israel by 2030
Translated & summarized from Ynet by baba
A new study by Eli Morgenshtern projects that by 2030, Israel's ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) education stream will enroll more first-graders than the state-secular stream. This shift is driven by a decline in the state-secular sector and growth in the Haredi sector, with combined Haredi and Arab kindergartens expected to exceed 50% by 2028. The study's author suggests a proactive approach, akin to David Ben-Gurion's educational reforms, to integrate Haredi students into a national framework and ensure future societal cohesion and service.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- By 2030, the Haredi education stream may have more first-graders than the state-secular stream in Israel.
- The study by Eli Morgenshtern is based on official Ministry of Education data and current trends.
- The state-secular stream lost 12% of first-graders since 2023, while the Haredi stream gained 11%.
- Haredi and Arab kindergartens combined are projected to be over 50% of all kindergartens by 2028.
- The author suggests integrating Haredi students into a state-run education system.
- The proposed solution draws inspiration from David Ben-Gurion's educational reforms.
A new study predicts that by September 2030, the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) education stream in Israel will have more first-grade students than the state-secular (Mamlachti-Ivri) stream, marking a significant shift in the country's education system. The research, conducted by Eli Morgenshtern, an expert in administration and public policy, utilizes official Ministry of Education data to project this trend. Morgenshtern's analysis indicates a consistent decline in the state-secular stream and a corresponding rise in the Haredi sector. Between 2023 and the present, the state-secular stream has lost approximately 12% of its first-grade students, while the Haredi stream has gained about 11% in the same period. The state-religious and Arab education streams have maintained their relative proportions.
If current trends continue, the Haredi education system is projected to become the largest in Israel during the 2025-2026 school year. The study also highlights that by 2028, Haredi and Arab kindergartens combined will constitute over 50% of all kindergarten students. This demographic shift has profound implications, as these streams often do not adhere to a Zionist ethos, do not mandate military or national service, and may be disconnected from the core national curriculum. Morgenshtern, who previously held senior positions in the Ministry of Finance, emphasizes that his research is based on official data and points to a critical juncture for Israel.
Morgenshtern, who grew up in the Haredi community, notes that changes in the education system are occurring much faster than previously anticipated. He contrasts current demographic projections, which focused on older populations and predicted slower changes, with the rapid shifts observed in early childhood education. He argues that the state must actively integrate Haredi students into a truly state-run education system, asserting control over curriculum, teacher training, and admissions, rather than allowing existing non-state institutions to dictate these aspects. Morgenshtern suggests a bold approach, inspired by David Ben-Gurion's unification of educational streams in the 1950s, to create state-Haredi schools and reduce public funding for non-state institutions, framing the upcoming elections as a choice between a Zionist state and one facing collapse.
