Iran Can Quickly Rebuild Missile Arsenal Despite Strikes, Bloomberg Reports

Iran retains the capability to rapidly produce and develop new missiles and drones, and to replenish its military stockpile quickly if a confrontation with the United States resumes, according to a Bloomberg report citing Western officials familiar with the matter. Tehran has managed to preserve its military production capabilities despite months of American and Israeli strikes, with Western estimates indicating it still possesses a significant inventory of ballistic missiles and anti-ship weapons, and the potential to expand this stock in a short period. One official told Bloomberg that Russia is supplying Iran with missiles, though details on the volume or nature of these supplies were not publicly disclosed. This information emerges amid previous reports of military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, including a Reuters report from August 2024 stating Iran was preparing to supply Russia with hundreds of ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. The former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also stated in September that Russia had received missile shipments from Iran, though public evidence of their use in combat in Ukraine has not been presented. Western officials suggest Russia is now a source of missiles for Iran, while Moscow has enhanced its own missile and drone production capabilities over the past year. The report posits that continued production and potential supplies could help Tehran rebuild its military reserves, enabling it to retaliate if the US or Israel resumes attacks.

These developments follow reports from Israel's Channel 12, which indicated that Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir was briefed by senior US officials on American military preparations for a potential resumption of a wide-scale confrontation with Iran within the next three weeks. The Pentagon has reportedly directed US Central Command to finalize preparations for a possible military operation, without a specified start date. Should hostilities resume, the US and Israel are expected to coordinate their military actions, with the Israeli military participating in strikes. Potential plans may include an intensive, relatively short campaign targeting Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facilities. A US official told Channel 12 that President Donald Trump initiated these preparations this time, unlike in February when the initiative was reportedly Israeli. However, Trump announced on Thursday that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, stating Iran is in a very bad economic and military situation and that sanctions remain in place. Bloomberg noted that Trump considered intensifying strikes after the elections, while the pause in major US attacks provides Iran an opportunity to rebuild its military capabilities.

An Israeli estimate suggested Iran possessed around 2,500 ballistic missiles before the current conflict, but the current remaining number is unknown. Western intelligence estimates from June indicated Tehran retained approximately 75% of its pre-war arsenal. In contrast, Bloomberg's analysis highlighted that Iran has launched over 4,000 cruise missiles and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles since the conflict began on February 28, reflecting significant usage of its arsenal. The report concludes that the cessation of major US strikes has allowed Iran time to recover and reorganize its capabilities in preparation for a potential new round of fighting.

Concurrently with military rebuilding, Iran has intensified attacks on shipping in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, with at least ten ships reportedly damaged in the past week, according to the British Navy. William Alberque, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum, believes Iran has stockpiled and concealed anti-ship cruise missiles over years, including weapons intended for the Houthis in Yemen. He expressed high confidence that Iran's maritime attack capabilities have not been fully revealed, suggesting a continued threat to vessels transiting the region. This is particularly significant given the Strait of Hormuz's strategic role in global trade and energy supplies.

Conversely, the White House has rejected assessments suggesting Iran has maintained significant military capabilities despite previous strikes. White House Spokesperson Anna Kelly told Bloomberg that Trump destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities during "Midnight Hammer" last year, and that the resumption of war in February destroyed the military system Iran sought to build around its nuclear program. She added that strikes targeted ballistic missiles, production facilities, and the Iranian navy. The divergence between Western assessments and US statements reflects an ongoing debate about the extent of Iran's retained military capabilities and its ability to rebuild its arsenal during the de-escalation period, while the possibility of renewed confrontation and escalation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a primary security concern in the region.