Palestinian Elections Likely to Be Postponed Amid Factional Interests

Palestinian factions are largely in agreement about postponing the upcoming elections, citing logistical difficulties due to the war in Gaza and a desire for political partnership before voting, according to Mohammed Daraghmeh, Director of Al-Sharq TV's Ramallah bureau. Daraghmeh stated on Radio Al-Shams that factions fear holding elections under current conditions could perpetuate the Palestinian division, which he described as a genuine crisis. He believes political factions are prioritizing their own interests over national ones, a "real disease" in Palestinian politics, specifically criticizing Hamas and Fatah for their calculations that harm the Palestinian people.

Daraghmeh expressed serious concerns about holding elections without political consensus, referencing the 2006 elections and their aftermath. He noted that conducting elections in Gaza amidst the ongoing war and humanitarian crisis is a significant challenge, with residents prioritizing basic needs over voting. He suggested that the initial decision to call for elections was influenced by political calculations, with Hamas potentially in a weaker position post-war. However, new political dynamics, including Mohammed Dahlan's role in Gaza's relief efforts, have shifted balances amidst the fragile Palestinian political system.

While postponement is strongly considered, Daraghmeh emphasized that cancellation is no longer an option due to international pressure, particularly from the European Union, which has warned the Palestinian Authority against a final cancellation. He indicated that the Authority has been informed that canceling the elections would result in it not being considered a partner, potentially leading to engagement with other Palestinian entities. Discussions are now focused on setting a new date, possibly in June, July, or November of next year, effectively delaying the elections by about a year.

Daraghmeh warned that further postponement is possible if conditions in Gaza do not improve, but a resolution to the Gaza conflict, new political developments, a change in the Israeli government, or a halt to settler violence could pave the way for elections on a new date. He viewed upcoming Israeli elections as crucial, predicting that the continuation of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, along with ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, could lead to increased escalation in the West Bank, fueled by settler attacks and land seizures.

The Palestinian Authority faces a severe economic crisis alongside political and Israeli pressures, threatening its collapse. Daraghmeh mentioned Israeli proposals to replace the Palestinian Authority with local councils, which he sees as a danger to its future. Despite security cooperation, the Authority endures ongoing Israeli measures and financial pressures. He also cautioned against the potential disintegration of the PA due to sustained pressure, with concerns about Israeli actions targeting Palestinian security forces, potentially aiming to weaken the Authority and alter the political administration in the West Bank.