Palestinian Elections Likely to Be Postponed Amidst Internal Divisions and External Obstacles

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is reportedly moving towards issuing a presidential decree to postpone the legislative elections scheduled for November 28. This potential delay comes ahead of the October 13 candidate registration deadline, according to informed Palestinian sources. The decree is expected as early as next Monday, following intensified Egyptian, Palestinian, and diplomatic efforts to agree on a new election date and initiate a national dialogue aimed at restructuring the Palestinian political landscape and forming a new partnership within the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

The PLO's Executive Committee is set to convene next Saturday to discuss a Fatah proposal recommending a limited postponement of the elections. This period would be utilized for comprehensive national dialogue before resuming the electoral process. Fatah representatives in Cairo have reportedly discussed an initiative by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) advocating for political partnership prior to elections with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP. While these factions welcomed the initiative, they demanded clear guarantees, including agreed-upon criteria for electing members of the Palestinian National Council, Central Council, and PLO Executive Committee, along with binding timelines.

Diplomatic efforts are underway, led by Palestinian Deputy Prime Minister Hussein Al-Sheikh, who has briefed Western consuls and diplomats on the challenges facing the elections. Al-Sheikh met with representatives from France, Britain, and Canada in Ramallah and spoke with European Commission Vice-President Kaja Kallas, discussing the deteriorating security and humanitarian conditions in the West Bank and Gaza. A European diplomatic source indicated that current conditions are unsuitable for "genuine and transparent" elections, suggesting a postponement to next year. The EU has affirmed its readiness to deploy an election observation mission and stressed the importance of credible, inclusive, and transparent elections.

These diplomatic moves coincide with the Palestinian Authority's announcement that the Israeli government has refused to allow the Central Election Commission into Gaza and Jerusalem to prepare for the elections. A source from the Election Commission stated that qualified teams are present in Gaza and that West Bank personnel are not essential for conducting the vote there. Regarding Jerusalem, the source noted that residents can vote in its suburbs at 28 designated locations. European discussions also focus on security guarantees for the electoral process in Gaza, given the volatile situation.

In Cairo, Jibril Rajoub, Secretary of Fatah's Central Committee, is continuing meetings with Egyptian officials and Palestinian factions to promote a national dialogue before a new election date is set. However, these meetings have not yet yielded concrete results. Egypt has reportedly set two conditions for sponsoring a national dialogue: addressing the issue of the reformist current within Fatah, including former leader Mohammed Dahlan, and reaching a prior understanding on the dialogue's outcomes to prevent another failed internal Palestinian reconciliation attempt.

Amidst the postponement efforts, internal political maneuvering is intensifying, particularly within Fatah, as the candidate registration deadline approaches. Fatah is attempting to unify its electoral lists amidst internal disputes. There are also reports of intensive contacts between Mohammed Dahlan's Democratic Reform Current and imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, aiming to form a national list headed by Barghouti. Sources close to Dahlan's current suggest they might withdraw from an alliance with Hamas if Barghouti agrees to lead a Fatah list. Hamas is exploring alternative options, including running independently or supporting a like-minded list, should the joint list formation fail.

Fatah has begun selecting its candidates through regional conferences. Meanwhile, leftist forces are registering separate lists, and independent figures are forming coalitions focused on economic development and improved services. Businessman Bashar Masri is reportedly forming a list centered on economic development and job creation. A proposal has been made by a Fatah delegation to set November 28, 2027, as the new election date, though other sources suggest a postponement to next year is more likely. Political sources believe the delay might be an attempt to avoid a repeat of the 2006 elections and the subsequent Palestinian division, seeking a political partnership model before returning to the ballot box.