Turkey Analyzes Israel's Growing Regional Strength, Fears Shift in Power Balance
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Turkey is analyzing Israel's growing regional power and fears a shift in the balance of power, with concerns persisting even after a change in Israeli leadership. Ankara has taken several diplomatic and economic steps against Israel since October 7, 2023, including recalling its ambassador and halting trade. A key point of contention arose in August 2026 over an alleged Israeli strike on a Syrian airbase. Turkey seeks a significant role in Gaza's reconstruction but acknowledges its influence is constrained by Israel and the US.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Turkey analyzes Israel's growing regional strength and fears a shift in the balance of power three years after October 7.
- Ankara recalled its ambassador in November 2023 and halted bilateral trade in May 2024.
- Turkey joined South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice in August 2024.
- An alleged Israeli strike on an airbase in August 2026 caused sharp warnings and derailed a coordination mechanism.
- Turkey seeks a key role in Gaza's future stabilization but acknowledges its influence is limited by Israel and the US.
Three years after October 7, Turkey is analyzing Israel's growing strength and expressing concerns about a significant shift in the regional balance of power, according to reports from Ankara. Turkish policymakers believe that even a change in Israeli government leadership would not necessarily alter this trajectory. Initially, Turkey's response to the military campaign in Gaza led to a hardening of Ankara's stance. Despite a ceasefire in October 2025, a political resolution remains elusive, with the IDF controlling over 60% of the Gaza Strip. Turkey recalled its ambassador in November 2023, halted all bilateral trade in May 2024, and officially joined South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice in August 2024.
Tensions escalated in August 2026 following an alleged Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase, which Turkey claimed was slated to host its forces. This incident prompted sharp warnings between the two nations and derailed a planned coordination mechanism. Ankara's internal policy discussions are heavily focused on Israeli domestic politics and upcoming elections. While some anticipate a new Israeli government might adopt a softer diplomatic tone, the prevailing assessment is that strategic mistrust has become entrenched.
Core issues such as Gaza, Syria, Iran, the Eastern Mediterranean, and overall regional influence are expected to remain significant points of friction. The future of Turkish-Israeli relations will be tested by the reconstruction efforts in Gaza. Although Turkey joined a US-led regional "Peace Council" earlier in the year, its on-the-ground influence is limited. Turkey seeks a key role in future stabilization mechanisms but recognizes that its ability to achieve this depends on agreements with Israel and the United States, who are currently dictating the new regional order.