Israel Weighs Response to Houthi Gains Near Key Red Sea Strait

Israel is closely monitoring the Houthi group's rapid advances in Yemen, particularly their strengthening positions near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. While concerned about the implications for shipping routes, including those to Israel's port of Eilat, Israel is currently opting against a preemptive strike. Instead, the defense establishment favors building a regional coalition to counter the Houthi threat, though this stance could shift if Israel faces direct attacks.

According to Al-Monitor, citing a senior Israeli intelligence source, the Houthi takeover of key locations like Mocha port and the islands of Mayyun, Greater Hanish, and Lesser Hanish has significantly expanded their control over the Red Sea coast. This territorial gain enhances their ability to influence a vital global maritime route, raising concerns for international trade and Saudi oil exports.

Israeli military officials are reportedly hesitant about a preemptive strike, noting that previous attacks by Israel, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia have not diminished the Houthis' capabilities. The group has demonstrated resilience, maintaining its ability to launch missiles and drones and now showing significant ground warfare prowess.

Israel's position could change under three scenarios. The first involves direct Houthi attacks on Israel, which would trigger an immediate response. The second concerns a significant threat to shipping in the Red Sea, potentially paralyzing the port of Eilat. A senior Israeli diplomat indicated that such a development could compel Israel to intervene directly. The third scenario involves closer cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, potentially with U.S. mediation, to share intelligence, though no official confirmation has been made.

The Houthi advances have complicated Saudi Arabia's situation, with reports of intelligence failures and the loss of significant weaponry. The evolving threat means Israel no longer views the Houthis solely as a distant group capable of occasional long-range attacks, but as a force that can impact crucial regional trade routes. Israel is also assessing how these developments might influence relations with Arab states, with some sources suggesting it could foster closer security cooperation, while others fear it might lead Gulf states to seek accommodation with Iran.