Israel Sees Strategic Opportunity Amid Red Sea Crisis and Saudi Pressure

A former senior Israeli military intelligence official, Amit Yagur, analyzed the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the regional maritime crisis, suggesting that Israel is presented with new strategic opportunities. Speaking on Channel 14's "Israel Hayom" program, Yagur stated that Hamas's strategy was to delay until the end of Donald Trump's presidency, but Israel decided to break the status quo.

Yagur dismissed claims that the elimination of Hamas leaders involved in the October 7th attack was politically motivated. He asserted it is part of a consistent Israeli strategy to target all those involved in the terror assault. The systematic elimination of key Hamas figures, he explained, is leading to inexperienced successors taking command, hindering the organization's ability to rebuild.

The former official highlighted the strategic advantage for Israel stemming from the pressure exerted by Iran-aligned Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Yagur described the maritime threats as a "double-edged sword" for the Iranian axis. He noted a significant drop in shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, from around 70 vessels daily before the war to about 20 now, as shipping companies reroute to avoid the area. This blockade, he argued, primarily impacts Saudi Arabia rather than the global economy.

Yagur explained that Saudi Arabia is caught in a pincer movement, facing threats from Iran and its proxies in Iraq to the north and east, and from the Houthis disrupting its oil exports to East Asia from the south. This situation, he believes, forces Riyadh to abandon its neutral stance and make decisive choices regarding its relationship with the United States and Israel. Saudi Arabia has attempted to maintain a dual approach, seeking U.S. support while avoiding actions like normalization with Israel or joining the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). However, the economic pressure from the pro-Iranian axis may compel Saudi leadership to clarify its future actions.