Yemen's Houthis Advance Near Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Threatening Red Sea Shipping

Houthi forces in Yemen have significantly expanded their territory in the west of the country, nearing the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This advance, particularly the capture of the port city of Mokha and the islands of Zuqur and Perim (also known as Mayyun), potentially enhances the Iran-backed group's ability to influence international maritime traffic.

The island of Perim, situated directly within the strait, is of particular strategic importance as it divides the waterway into two shipping channels. While previous Houthi threats to shipping primarily involved missiles and drones launched from within Yemen, controlling territory and islands near the strait allows for potential surveillance, intelligence gathering, and direct threats to vessels in a critical chokepoint.

However, the article notes that the Houthis do not yet have full control of the Bab el-Mandeb and a complete blockade would likely provoke a direct military response from international naval forces present in the region. Nevertheless, even the threat of increased attacks could lead shipping companies to reroute around Africa, increasing costs and insurance premiums for voyages through the area.

For Israel, the Houthi advance is particularly significant as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and the maritime route to Israel's port of Eilat. The Houthis have previously targeted Israeli-linked vessels and launched attacks toward Israel. Their consolidation of positions near the strait expands their capacity to pressure maritime traffic relevant to Israel, though the actual scale of the threat to Eilat will depend on the weaponry deployed and sustained control of the new positions.

The Houthi gains occur amid heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, another vital energy corridor. The simultaneous pressure on both straits could have far-reaching consequences, including increased freight and insurance costs, longer delivery routes, and upward pressure on oil and commodity prices globally.

The Houthi expansion also poses a new threat to Saudi Arabia, which relies on the East-West pipeline to transport oil to its Red Sea terminals, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The increased risk to shipping exiting the Red Sea diminishes the value of this alternative route.

While the Houthis maintain their own structure, their actions align with Iran's interests by creating an additional pressure point on Iran's adversaries and global trade. However, the article cautions against viewing this as a decisive Iranian advantage, as it depends on the Houthis' ability to sustain control and disrupt shipping despite opposition from Saudi Arabia and other nations.