Iran's Broader Strategy: Houthi Gains in Yemen May Be Diversionary Tactic

The recent Houthi capture of strategic positions near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint, is viewed by some analysts not as a decisive victory for Iran, but as part of a larger asymmetric strategy. Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Amit Yagur, writing for Maariv, suggests that Iran aims to increase pressure on its adversaries and divert their attention from potential direct confrontations with Tehran.

The Houthi advances, including the seizure of the port of Al Mukha and Perim Island (known locally as Mayyun), exploit the weakened position of their opponents in southern Yemen. These gains near the strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, are significant. Concurrently, the Houthis have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and military targets, which Yagur believes could be intended to force Riyadh to cease its offensive operations in Yemen.

Despite the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, its potential closure would have less impact on global trade now than in the past. Maariv reports that shipping traffic through the strait has already decreased by 50-60% due to previous Houthi attacks, with many Western carriers rerouting vessels around Africa. While this alternative route increases transit times and costs, it has become an established alternative. Therefore, Houthi control may raise shipping costs and energy market risks, but not necessarily cause a collapse in global trade.

For Israel, the situation is more sensitive, as increased Houthi activity near the Red Sea entrance heightens risks for maritime routes to Eilat and expands surveillance and attack capabilities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia faces a critical challenge without direct military support. Despite a new defense agreement, Pakistan has not rushed to join the conflict, and the U.S. has reportedly declined direct military strikes, offering intelligence and targeting assistance instead. This situation tests the effectiveness of the so-called Mecca Pact in moving beyond declarations to concrete military action.

Yagur posits that the U.S. refusal might stem from a strategic decision to conserve military resources for a potential larger confrontation with Iran itself, rather than a lack of willingness to counter Tehran. The Houthi actions, in this view, create multiple problems for Iran's rivals: Saudi Arabia must defend its territory and infrastructure, Israel must contend with growing southern threats, and international shippers face increased risks and costs on Red Sea routes. However, the strategic significance of the Bab el-Mandeb does not equate to full control over the global energy system, as alternative shipping routes remain operational.