US May Be Saving Military Power for Iran, Not Yemen

A reserve lieutenant colonel, Amit Yagur, writing for Maariv, suggests that the United States' refusal to directly intervene in the conflict against Yemen's Houthi rebels might signal a broader U.S. strategy focused on Iran. Yagur posits that Washington may be deliberately avoiding the expenditure of military resources in Yemen, viewing Tehran as the primary target for a potential next phase of regional confrontation.

The Houthi movement has capitalized on shifts in the battlefield, advancing along Yemen's southern coast and capturing key positions near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the port of Al-Mukha and Perim Island. Concurrently, the Houthis have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting oil and military installations. Yagur characterizes these actions as part of an asymmetric strategy by Iran and its allies, aiming to inflict maximum damage on Riyadh by creating threats in strategically sensitive areas rather than engaging in direct confrontation.

This situation presents a significant challenge for Saudi Arabia, which is simultaneously engaged in Yemen, defending its own territory, and guarding its critical oil infrastructure. Despite reported appeals from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct U.S. military support, President Trump declined, offering only intelligence and targeting assistance. Pakistan and Turkey, despite defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, have also not intervened militarily, testing Riyadh's new regional alliances and highlighting the limitations of support beyond American security guarantees.

Yagur's analysis suggests that the White House might consider Yemen a secondary theater, conserving precision munitions, air power, and other resources for a potential direct confrontation with Iran. From this perspective, the U.S. refusal to engage in Yemen could be a strategic move to preserve its capabilities for a larger campaign against Iran, which could also impact Iran-backed Houthis. The article emphasizes that this is Yagur's analytical interpretation, and the White House has not officially linked its decision to a potential operation against Iran.

While the Houthi advances near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait pose risks to Red Sea shipping, global trade has shown some adaptation. Shipping intensity through the strait has reportedly decreased by 50-60%, with many Western carriers rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This alternative route increases transit times and costs but bypasses the dangerous area. Therefore, while Houthi gains could further raise shipping costs and pressure the energy market, they do not grant Iran the ability to completely halt global trade.

For Israel, the developments carry dual significance. Increased Houthi activity near the Red Sea entrance heightens threats to shipping and Israel's southern flank. Conversely, the U.S. decision not to intervene in Yemen might indicate Washington's prioritization of a confrontation with Iran itself. Yagur suggests that Houthi actions could be an Iranian attempt to raise the stakes for a potential campaign against Iran while simultaneously creating crises for Saudi Arabia, Israel, and international trade.