Saudi-Iranian Tensions in Yemen Open Strategic Cooperation Window for Israel

The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again with exchanges of fire between US forces and Iran's Revolutionary Guards, attacks on commercial vessels, and threats from US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials. Meanwhile, a new front has flared as Saudi Arabia launched an attack on Sanaa airport, a key hub for the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis retaliated by firing five ballistic missiles at an airport in southern Saudi Arabia.

Since the 2022 ceasefire agreement in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has maintained relative calm in the region despite years of Houthi attacks. The Houthis, backed by Iran, control about 28% of Yemen including the capital Sanaa and the strategic port city of Hodeidah, which has allowed them to block the Bab al-Mandab strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Experts note that Saudi Arabia's recent strike marks an escalation linked to the erosion of deterrence in the Gulf states. Iranian flights to Yemen, previously banned under the ceasefire except to Egypt and Jordan, have resumed, raising Riyadh's concerns. The Saudi attack, likely approved by the US, aims to send a message to both the Houthis and Iran without fully igniting regional conflict. The Yemeni government, supported by Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis have blamed each other for the escalation.

This shared Houthi threat presents a potential strategic opportunity for Israel and Saudi Arabia to deepen cooperation. Analysts suggest Israel could assist with intelligence and military support, similar to its role in protecting the UAE from Iranian attacks. However, some experts caution that Saudi Arabia's close ties with the US may reduce its need for Israeli involvement.

Saudi Arabia also faces a critical economic threat if the Houthis block Bab al-Mandab, which would severely disrupt oil exports to key Asian markets like China, India, South Korea, and Japan. Such a blockade would increase shipping times and costs, potentially devastating Saudi oil revenues. The Houthis have indicated intentions to "nationalize" the strait, echoing Iran's stance on Hormuz, risking a renewed civil war in Yemen and broader regional instability.

The situation remains volatile, with calls from the UN envoy for restraint to prevent a new cycle of violence. The evolving dynamics could reshape alliances and security cooperation in the Gulf amid ongoing Iranian influence and proxy conflicts.