Yemen on Brink of Collapse as Saudi Attacks Escalate Amid Tribal Rebellion

Yemen faces a critical risk of renewed civil war and regional conflict following a series of dramatic events threatening the fragile ceasefire established in April 2022. The ceasefire, the longest since the civil war began in September 2014, is now on the verge of collapse due to an unprecedented tribal rebellion in northern Yemen, a deadly Houthi attack in Al Hudaydah, and the landing of an Iranian civilian plane in Sanaa for the first time in over 11 years. If the ceasefire fails, the consequences could extend beyond Yemen, involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other regional powers.

Yemen has long been described as a fragile and failed state, with deep tribal divisions and limited central government control, especially in northern and eastern regions. The current civil war is rooted in longstanding political, religious, and tribal disputes, not merely a proxy conflict. The Houthis, who seized Sanaa in early 2015, have faced growing internal opposition from tribes angered by forced conscription, heavy taxation, and violations of tribal sovereignty. A significant tribal uprising erupted in Al-Jawf province after the Houthis arrested a key tribal leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Fudaim al-Hazmi, sparking armed resistance and the establishment of a military camp in territory controlled by the internationally recognized government.

The Houthis have accused the Saudi-led coalition of exploiting the tribal unrest and have intensified military operations, including a severe attack in Al Hudaydah that killed dozens. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been working to reassert control in southern Yemen amid tensions with the United Arab Emirates, which supports the Southern Transitional Council. Riyadh dismantled the council's leadership and froze its funding, escalating political and military rivalries in the south.

The landing of an Iranian Mahan Air flight in Sanaa in early July marked a significant escalation, signaling Tehran's direct support for the Houthis and challenging the Saudi-led air blockade. Saudi Arabia condemned the flight, suspecting it carried military equipment and personnel. This development risks turning Yemen into a direct battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with potential repercussions for Israel and the wider region.

The fragile ceasefire is further threatened by economic collapse, unpaid salaries for state employees in Houthi areas, and the Houthis' use of the Palestinian cause to rally support and suppress internal dissent. The ongoing maritime and aerial confrontations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, including attacks on shipping and threats against Israel, underscore the conflict's regional dimension. Experts warn that renewed full-scale war in Yemen could destabilize the entire Middle East, drawing in multiple state and non-state actors.

The situation remains volatile, with attempts at mediation ongoing but no clear resolution in sight. The international community faces the challenge of preventing Yemen's descent into a wider regional war that could have severe humanitarian and security consequences.