Shlomo Filber Predicts Religious Zionism Party Will Surpass Electoral Threshold Over Winter's Faction
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Shlomo Filber predicts that Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party is more likely to pass the electoral threshold and enter the next Knesset than Ofer Winter's new party. Filber cites a strong, loyal voter base and overlooked first-time voters as key factors, while noting Winter's faction draws support mainly from moderate voters. He also criticizes political fragmentation in the sector and compares Religious Zionism's enduring influence to that of Meretz.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Religious Zionism party has a stronger chance to pass the electoral threshold than Ofer Winter's new party.
- The party's core base accounts for nearly four stable mandates, with additional first-time voters adding 1.5 mandates.
- First-time voters from national-religious education are highly loyal but often ignored by pollsters.
- Winter's party draws support from moderate voters, not Religious Zionism's solid base.
- Religious Zionism maintains one of the highest voter loyalty rates, second only to Likud and Haredi parties.
- Political fragmentation in the sector has failed to produce a viable alternative to Religious Zionism.
In light of recent polls and political turmoil following the formation of a new party by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, media figure and research strategist Shlomo Filber offers a contrasting analysis. Filber argues that the Religious Zionism party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, has a significantly higher chance of crossing the electoral threshold and securing seats in the next Knesset compared to Winter's party and other challengers.
Filber highlights that the party's core base, consisting of Haredi, Torah-observant, and settler voters, reliably accounts for nearly four stable mandates. Additionally, about 65,000 first-time voters raised in the national-religious education system represent roughly one and a half mandates, a segment often overlooked by most pollsters. He emphasizes that these voters are among the most loyal, and Winter's party is not drawing support from this solid base but rather from more moderate voters who have not supported Smotrich in recent years.
Filber also notes that Religious Zionism voters have consistently appeared in election results despite analysts prematurely declaring their decline. The party enjoys one of the highest voter loyalty rates in Israeli politics, second only to Likud and the Haredi parties. He criticizes the trend of political fragmentation within the sector, pointing out that parties attempting to mock or replace Religious Zionism have failed to offer a viable alternative.
Concluding his analysis, Filber compares Religious Zionism to the historical Meretz party, describing Meretz as a small, ideologically cohesive core that influenced the state beyond its size. However, unlike Meretz, Religious Zionism benefits from a continuing generational base, suggesting sustained influence in Israeli politics.
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