Gantz's Election Exit Could Impact Israeli Politics Significantly

According to Cursorinfo, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has emerged as a major potential beneficiary, with its probability of joining the next government rising to 62 percent on Polymarket. Yashar is projected to win between 22 and 23 seats, while the Likud party maintains the highest probability of coalition participation at 79 percent, with an expected 20 to 24 seats. Additionally, the Together list, linked to Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, has a 38 percent probability of winning 11 to 13 seats, and the Economic Party - Reservists has a 60 percent chance of entering the Knesset.

Conversely, Srugim reports that Gantz's departure could primarily benefit Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha rather than Eisenkot. Hendel, who was previously rejected by Eisenkot, has formed a political partnership with Zelekha, positioning their list as the primary alternative for centrist voters. Srugim also notes that Ofer Winter might attract some of Gantz's former right-wing voters, though he faces his own electoral challenges. The future of the Blue and White list remains uncertain.