Battle for Electoral Threshold Could Decide Israel's Upcoming Elections

The key factor likely to determine the outcome of Israel's upcoming elections is the intense competition among parties near the electoral threshold, with at least eight parties currently vying for survival compared to the usual two or three. Historically, votes lost by parties failing to cross the threshold have significantly impacted election results, as seen in previous elections.

In the 2019 elections, nearly 370,000 votes were wasted, equivalent to over ten Knesset seats, with three parties failing to pass the threshold, including those led by Naftali Bennett and Moshe Feiglin. Bennett missed the threshold by only 1,453 votes, but together, these parties cost Netanyahu's bloc about seven seats, weakening his position from 60 to 55 seats in the subsequent round.

In the 2022 elections, the final margin between Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition was roughly 30,000 votes, less than one seat. However, the threshold effect amplified this gap to nearly 300,000 wasted votes, as parties like Meretz and Balad failed to cross the threshold by small margins, ultimately benefiting Netanyahu's bloc, which secured 64 seats against 56 for the opposition.

Looking ahead to the 2026 elections, the competition around the threshold is unprecedented, with eighteen lists currently contending, many drawing votes from Netanyahu's bloc. Notable figures and parties include Ofer Winter, Bezalel Smotrich, Avi Maoz, Moshe Feiglin-Michael Ben Ari, Gilad Erdan-Yuli Edelstein, Hili Tropper-Yoaz Hendel, Benny Gantz, and Sharren Haskel, as well as two ultra-Orthodox parties challenging the larger Haredi lists.

While significant party mergers are expected before the final registration deadline, analysts estimate that parties will need approximately 160,000 to 170,000 votes to surpass the threshold, higher than in previous elections. This fragmented landscape suggests the upcoming election will be one of the most unpredictable and closely contested in recent Israeli history, making the days before the final list closures critical for both political blocs.