Amir Segal Analyzes Potential US Escalation Against Iran and Israel's Role

Amir Segal examines US President Donald Trump's recent remarks about a "significant expansion" of operations against Iran, suggesting a major escalation beyond ongoing American strikes that have lasted nearly two weeks. Segal outlines three possible directions for this escalation. The first involves attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, a plan reportedly approved by the US and initiated by Israel before Trump pulled back following Gulf states' diplomatic interventions. The second potential move targets Iran's nuclear program, including facilities in Arak and the Fordow site, as well as Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. The third concerns the Strait of Hormuz, which has unexpectedly become a critical global economic issue, despite initially being off Israel's radar at the conflict's start.

Segal highlights a surprising scenario where the US could intensify its campaign against Iran independently, potentially keeping Israel out of direct conflict. However, he expresses skepticism that Iran would allow Israel to avoid retaliation, given Tehran's view of Israel as the "little Satan" and an active participant in the conflict. Nonetheless, recent weeks have seen Israel remain the calmest spot in the Middle East, with flights continuing normally while foreign airlines cancel routes to other regional destinations. Segal concludes that a narrow path for Israel to avoid escalation exists but depends entirely on President Trump's decisions.