Israel Election Results Hinge on Half-Million 'Double Envelope' Votes

The final results of Israel's 26th Knesset elections, held on Wednesday, October 28, will not be known until after the counting of over half a million "double envelopes," or "matzafot kfulot," a process expected to conclude by Thursday evening or Friday, October 30. Elad Nave, head of the Central Election Commission's coordination center, told Ynet that these votes, cast by individuals unable to vote at their registered polling stations, could significantly alter the distribution of Knesset seats.

These "double envelopes" are used by voters such as soldiers, reservists, diplomats, and evacuated civilians. Their votes are only counted after verification that they haven't voted elsewhere. Historically, these votes have impacted election outcomes, typically shifting one to two Knesset mandates. In the 2022 elections, over 460,000 Israelis used this method, and for the current election, the commission anticipates between 600,000 and 650,000 such ballots, a significant increase attributed to the ongoing war.

Nave indicated that the counting of these ballots, which could represent around 15 mandates, is expected to begin late Wednesday or Thursday. Historically, the "double envelope" votes have tended to benefit Zionist parties while slightly disadvantaging ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties. This is because a larger proportion of these voters are IDF soldiers, with a lower representation of ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens among them. Parties like Yahadut HaTorah, Shas, Ra'am, and the United Arab List are expected to potentially lose mandates based on past trends.

Past elections illustrate this effect: in the 2022 elections, Yahadut HaTorah lost a mandate to Yisrael Beiteinu after the "double envelope" count. In the March 2021 elections, Ra'am dropped to four mandates while Meretz rose to six following the counting of approximately 428,000 "double envelope" votes. The IDF reported a 79.9% voter turnout among soldiers, an increase from 2022, with extensive efforts made to facilitate military voting.

Despite the high volume of "double envelope" votes, Nave stressed that definitive conclusions cannot be drawn until all votes are tallied and verified. He noted that the final mandate "weight" is not yet determined. Post-counting, selective audits of polling stations will occur between November 1-3 to ensure accuracy, a process that has previously involved recounting nearly half of all stations.