Half a Million Votes Could Sway Israeli Election Results

More than half a million votes are still awaiting tabulation in Israel's 26th Knesset elections, a process involving "double envelopes" that could significantly alter the political landscape and shift parliamentary seats between parties. The counting is expected to begin this evening, with nearly final results anticipated by tomorrow evening, though verification procedures might extend further. As of 1:00 PM, 77.6% of valid votes have been counted, showing the Netanyahu bloc with 54 mandates and the Eisenkot bloc with 49, while Arab parties hold 17. However, these figures are preliminary and subject to change.

The Central Elections Committee anticipated an unusually high number of double envelopes due to the ongoing war, reserve duty, and displaced voters. In the 2022 elections, over 460,000 people voted this way; this year, estimates range from 600,000 to 650,000, representing approximately 15 mandates in terms of votes. Historically, these votes, often cast by soldiers and security personnel, tend to favor secular parties over ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, potentially improving the standing of secular parties while diminishing the influence of the former. This effect was observed in the 25th Knesset elections, where United Torah Judaism lost a mandate after the double envelopes were counted, while Yisrael Beiteinu gained one. Similar shifts occurred in the March 2021 elections.

Elad Na've, director of the Elections Committee's control center, stated that while regular ballot box data is still being processed, it's too early to assess the impact of the double envelopes. He noted that the distribution of votes in these envelopes typically mirrors the national distribution, without necessarily indicating significant deviations. The final mandate allocation depends on all valid votes, final results, the electoral threshold, and surplus vote agreements.

The counting process involves verifying envelopes, cross-referencing to prevent double voting, distributing them to relevant committees, and then opening and counting the votes under supervision. The committee expects the count to conclude by tomorrow evening, possibly extending to Friday. Post-count, sample ballot box reviews and checks on discrepancies or unusual events are scheduled, delaying the final results.

Meanwhile, the IDF spokesperson reported that 79.9% of military personnel voted, an increase from 2022. Over 890 military polling stations were established across the country, including mobile units, to facilitate voting for service members, even in combat zones and remote bases. The final composition of the next Knesset remains uncertain until all votes are counted and verified.