Israelis Divided on Election Outcome, Future Leadership

With one day remaining until Israelis vote for their 26th Knesset, a new poll by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) reveals a deeply polarized society with diverse expectations for a future government. The election is widely seen as crucial for the Jewish state's future, with significant divisions on how to best address national challenges.

Jewish voters are primarily concerned with a party's ability to handle foreign and security policy. However, within this group, left-wing and centrist voters prioritize overcoming societal divisions, while right-wing voters focus on external threats. Arab voters, conversely, are most concerned with tackling the high cost of living.

The poll shows no clear consensus on which political bloc will form the next government. The "change bloc," aiming for a government transition, leads with 31 percent support, while the right-religious bloc garners 27.5 percent. Among Jewish respondents, the right-religious bloc has a slight edge in forming a government if neither bloc secures a majority, whereas Arab respondents favor the change bloc.

Preferences for government composition also differ. Jewish voters favor a broad coalition of Zionist parties excluding ultra-Orthodox factions. Arab voters prefer a center-left coalition, potentially including or supported by Arab parties. If no majority is formed, over a third of Jewish respondents prefer new elections, followed by a unity government with a rotating prime minister. Arab respondents also favor new elections, with nearly half supporting this option, and about a quarter favoring a minority government.

President Isaac Herzog has pledged to prevent a repeat of the frequent elections between 2019 and 2022, when Israelis went to the polls five times in three and a half years. The IDI survey also assessed public acceptance of potential prime ministerial candidates. Gadi Eisenkot emerged as the most widely accepted candidate among Jewish voters, with 56 percent wishing for him to lead. Naftali Bennett followed, with about half of Jewish respondents open to his premiership. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, faces significant rejection, with 54 percent finding it difficult to accept him again. Avigdor Lieberman received the lowest approval ratings. Eisenkot is also the only candidate accepted by a majority of Arab respondents, while Netanyahu is rejected by 84 percent of this demographic.