Meta Reportedly Building a Prediction-Market App to Challenge Polymarket

Meta is secretly developing a new prediction-market app that would compete with leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a report in the New York Post cited by c14. The project is being built under the internal code name Arena and would let users place money-based forecasts on events such as elections, global politics, sports and entertainment awards.

The move is part of Mark Zuckerberg's search for new growth engines beyond Meta's core social networks. Prediction markets have expanded rapidly in recent years and have become one of Silicon Valley's hottest sectors. Meta's biggest advantage would be its enormous user base through Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, which could make such a product far more accessible to mainstream users.

This would not be Meta's first attempt in the field. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a points-based prediction app, but it failed and was shut down in 2022. The new effort is described as more commercial, with potential revenue from trading fees and from combining forecasts, community interaction and live content.

The initiative is also likely to draw regulatory scrutiny. Prediction markets are being examined in many countries over concerns about insider trading, influence on political events and the blurred line between public forecasting and gambling. Meta has not officially announced Arena, and it is still unclear whether, or when, the app will be released to the public.