Meta Is Reportedly Building a Prediction-Market App to Challenge Polymarket

Meta is developing a new app called Arena that would let users take part in prediction markets, according to a New York Times report. The experimental product is intended to compete with leading platforms in the sector, especially Polymarket and Kalshi, and would operate separately from Meta’s existing social media apps.

For now, Arena is expected to use a points-based system similar to video games rather than real-money betting. However, the company has not ruled out adding actual cash wagering in the future. Meta representatives declined to comment on the report, and company employees said the app is still in development and may never be released.

The move comes as online prediction markets have surged in popularity, allowing users to bet on public, sports, and political events. In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket together generated $50 billion in trading volume, and that figure has already exceeded $130 billion this year. Industry estimates cited in the report say annual trading could reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.

The project has already drawn sharp political criticism. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut attacked Meta on social media, writing, “Meta copied slot machines to addict children to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction platform.” Blumenthal said Meta’s business model profits from addiction and urged support for two bills he is sponsoring in Congress, the Kids Online Safety Act and the Platform Accountability and Integrity Act.