Meta is quietly building a prediction-market app to challenge Polymarket

Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is secretly developing a new prediction-market app called "Arena," according to a report Tuesday night in the New York Post. The app would let users place bets on election results, world politics, sports events, and entertainment awards, and is meant to take on market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi.

The project is part of Zuckerberg’s search for new growth engines after years of focus on social networking. Prediction markets have expanded quickly over the past two years, becoming highly profitable. In 2025, operators in the field handled about $50 billion, and by the start of 2026, trading volume had already exceeded $130 billion.

Meta’s main advantage is its huge audience. More than 3.5 billion people use at least one of its apps, Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp, every day. The company hopes to make prediction betting accessible to the mass market and to profit from trading fees by turning digital crowd wisdom into revenue for both users and Meta.

This is not Meta’s first attempt to enter the space. In 2020, it launched "Forecast," an app that let users make predictions with a points system, but the project failed and was shut down in 2022. Now, with the sector more legitimate and more lucrative, Meta is returning with a standalone app aimed at the booming news-driven betting market in Silicon Valley.

The move is likely to face close regulatory scrutiny. Authorities in the United States and elsewhere have already warned that prediction markets could allow traders to exploit inside information to profit from bets tied to major events. Even so, Meta is continuing work on "Arena" alongside other experimental projects, including an AI-based product called "Meta Photos."