Likud Primaries Reveal Surprises as Eli Cohen Leads and Nir Barkat Battles for Safe Spot

The Likud party held its primaries with dramatic contests and unexpected results, as the manual vote counting continued overnight at Bloomfield Stadium in Jaffa. By 8:05 a.m., 88% of the ballots had been tallied. Eli Cohen leads with a margin of over 3,000 votes ahead of Amir Ohana, who narrowly edges out Yariv Levin. At the lower end of the list, Nir Barkat and Ze'ev Elkin are competing for the last realistic spot, currently the 16th place on the list, which corresponds to the 26th after reserved slots.

Miri Regev is the highest-ranked woman, placed fourth overall, while Tali Gottlieb holds the 12th spot, much lower than early expectations. Several prominent figures, including ministers May Golan, Avi Dichter, and Idit Silman, as well as MKs Hanoch Milwitsky, Keti Shitrit, Ariel Kallner, Nissim Vaturi, Shason Guetta, and Shalom Danino, are currently outside realistic positions. Notably, Likud faction chairman MK Ofir Katz surged to fifth place, ahead of ministers Yoav Kisch and Miki Zohar. Almog Cohen, a first-time candidate, surprisingly secured a top-ten spot ahead of ministers Dudi Amsalem and Amichai Shikli.

David Bitan, seen as a main opposition figure to Netanyahu within the primaries, is expected to remain in the Knesset, currently ranked 14th. Netanyahu-backed candidates led in their respective districts, including Shlomo Lerner in Dan, Erez Tadmor in Jerusalem, and Shuki Ohana in the Galilee. However, candidates supported for the new female slot, Osnat Zohar and Dr. Ruth Kabsa Abramson, lagged behind Keren Atias Bublil, promoted by Bitan.

The party reported a 53.5% voter turnout, with 75,177 members voting, lower than expected for these pivotal primaries. The manual counting was chosen over electronic voting due to cybersecurity concerns and political considerations, allowing greater control over the list composition. The final list currently places Netanyahu first, followed by Eli Cohen, reserved slots likely for Israel Katz and Gideon Sa'ar, then Amir Ohana, Yariv Levin, Miri Regev, and others. If Likud remains in power, lower-ranked candidates may enter the Knesset under the Norwegian Law.

Tali Gottlieb commented on her lower-than-expected placement, stating that despite efforts to undermine her, Likud's right-wing voters fought strongly for her. The primaries are seen as a critical moment for many candidates, with some fighting for their political survival.