Survey Reveals Complex Political Alliances and Preferences Among Israeli Voters Ahead of Next Knesset
A unique survey conducted by the Masrek-Ravdim Institute in collaboration with Channel 7 reveals a nuanced political map among Jewish Israeli voters, highlighting not only clear bloc divisions but also bridges, intermediate zones, and significant barriers between parties. The survey, based on a representative sample of 901 respondents, explores which parties voters would like to see in the next Knesset, beyond just their voting intentions. It was conducted about two weeks ago and focuses on general political affinities rather than immediate seat projections.
Within the right-wing core, voters inclined towards Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism overwhelmingly desire the presence of all three parties in the Knesset, with 77% of Likud supporters wanting Otzma Yehudit and 88% of Otzma Yehudit supporters wanting Religious Zionism. However, these voters show limited interest in opposition parties, with less than 20% wanting Yisrael Beiteinu and even fewer supporting parties led by Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eizenkot. Notably, 40-50% of right-wing voters also want Shas and United Torah Judaism represented.
Moving beyond the core right, voters for parties like Zehut and Winter show strong ties to the right-wing bloc but also display openness to figures like Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, indicating broader political legitimacy. Voters for parties such as Adlstein and Zelicha do not fit neatly into traditional blocs, expressing significant support for both right-wing and centrist parties, including Lapid, Bennett, and Eizenkot. This group notably shows asymmetrical preferences, with 61% of Adlstein supporters wanting Likud, but only 33% of Likud supporters reciprocating.
On the center-left, voters for Lapid, Bennett, and Eizenkot form a tightly knit triangle, with 80-94% desiring the other two parties in the Knesset. They largely exclude ultra-Orthodox parties and Noam but show considerable support for Golan’s Democratic camp. Despite this cohesion, about a quarter of Lapid and Eizenkot supporters want Likud in the Knesset, indicating some cross-bloc acceptance. Golan’s supporters strongly favor the opposition trio but have minimal support from right-wing voters.
Regarding Arab parties, there is a stark contrast between Hadash-Balad and Ra’am. Most voters across parties show little desire to see Hadash or Balad in the Knesset, except for 29% and 21% of Democratic voters respectively. Ra’am, however, enjoys broader acceptance, with 13-23% support among various voter groups and 59% among Democratic voters, marking it as distinct from other Arab parties.
In summary, the survey uncovers two clear political cores: the right-wing bloc (Likud, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit) and the opposition bloc (Yisrael Beiteinu, Bennett, Eizenkot), each with strong internal support and limited but notable cross-bloc appeal. Between these cores lies a complex political landscape where parties like Adlstein, Zelicha, and Golan bridge divides, reflecting a multifaceted voter map that transcends simple voting intentions. The findings emphasize that while voters cast a single ballot, their political preferences encompass a broader spectrum of potential coalition partners and rivals in the Knesset.
