Statistical Analysis Finds No Strong Link Between Toto Cup Success and League Performance

The Toto Cup group stage is currently underway as a preseason tournament for the Israeli Premier League, helping teams regain match fitness before the regular season. A common belief suggests that teams excelling in the Toto Cup often falter in the league, but a recent statistical analysis challenges this notion.

Examining data from the past five seasons since the tournament adopted a two-group format, researchers compared teams' success rates in the Toto Cup group stage with their performance in the league's first round. The findings revealed an almost negligible correlation of just 1.4%, indicating that success or failure in the Toto Cup does not reliably predict league outcomes. Factors such as venue changes, fan presence, and key player injuries have a greater impact on league performance.

Further analysis showed no consistent pattern linking teams' rankings in the Toto Cup to their league standings after the first round. For example, only four of the top 15 league teams were among the top three in the Toto Cup group stage, and only three teams ranked in the top third of the Toto Cup ended up in the bottom third of the league standings, two of which were Hapoel Jerusalem in the 2021/22 and 2025/26 seasons.

Average league points after the first round varied little across teams grouped by Toto Cup points, with those earning 10-12 points averaging 16 league points, slightly higher but not conclusively significant. The study emphasizes the randomness inherent in football, especially early in the season when teams are still regaining form and experimenting with tactics and lineups.

Despite the limited predictive value of Toto Cup results, the tournament remains valuable for coaches to test players and strategies, particularly as European competition participants do not take part in the group stage. The Toto Cup offers fans an early glimpse of player form and team dynamics ahead of the 26-match regular season and subsequent playoffs. Ultimately, league results are what count, with the Toto Cup serving as a preparatory phase rather than a performance indicator.