Gadi Eisenkot Gains Most From Shifts in Israeli Polls Amid Party Changes

Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, discussed recent trends in Israeli political polls during a Thursday interview on Radio 103FM. He noted that despite internal party changes and the emergence of new parties, the overall balance between political blocs remains relatively stable. According to Lazar, the coalition bloc holds about 50 seats, the opposition around 59 to 60, and Arab parties approximately 10 seats. Most shifts are occurring within blocs rather than between them.

Lazar addressed the potential formation of a new party by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, aimed at right-wing voters disappointed with Likud and the moderate right. He expressed uncertainty about whether this new party would cross the electoral threshold or significantly shift votes between blocs, though it might slightly strengthen one side depending on its alignment.

Regarding reports that Yoav Segalovich might join the Ra'am party, Lazar suggested this could notably increase voter turnout in the Arab sector and boost Ra'am’s seat count. However, he said the overall impact on the opposition’s ability to reach a majority of 61 seats remains unclear.

Lazar also commented on the decline of the "Together" party in polls, which dropped from around 30 seats to 13-15. He identified Gadi Eisenkot as the main beneficiary of this decline, with Eisenkot’s party rising to about 23 seats. Lazar questioned whether "Together" had hit its lowest point yet.

Finally, Lazar discussed Shas’s weakening position in the polls, attributing it to dissatisfaction among its two main voter groups: the ultra-Orthodox Sephardic community unhappy with the party’s failure to advance a military draft law, and the traditional Sephardic voters opposed to the draft law efforts. This dual dissatisfaction has negatively affected Shas’s seat numbers, Lazar concluded.