Likud Court Ruling Alters Power Dynamics Ahead of Upcoming Primaries

Political analyst Binyamin Ashkenazi discussed the recent Likud party court decision barring current Knesset members and ministers from running for district slots in the upcoming primaries. He explained that this ruling significantly impacts candidates who had prepared to compete in these districts, which require fewer votes than the national list and thus serve as a crucial path for new contenders. Ashkenazi noted that candidates now must adjust their campaign strategies and funding plans due to this change.

The Likud court stated that allowing sitting MKs and ministers to run in district slots would require a constitutional amendment or other formal regulation. The district slots aim to facilitate new candidates’ entry, and permitting incumbents to compete there would give them a substantial advantage. Ashkenazi also highlighted the influence of independent party members, whose voting patterns are unpredictable despite the presence of organized groups.

Regarding reserved spots controlled by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, Ashkenazi said Netanyahu intends to appeal more to the political center but has yet to secure new candidates for these slots. With 84 days until the election, Ashkenazi emphasized the fluidity of political developments and their impact on decisions. He expressed skepticism about a joint run between Likud and other parties at this stage and noted Netanyahu must monitor right-wing parties like Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, which risk failing to pass the electoral threshold and potentially losing votes for the right-wing bloc.