Likud Court Ruling Bars Sitting MKs From District Primaries, Boosting Bitan and Gabay

The Likud party's internal court has ruled that sitting Members of Knesset (MKs) cannot run in the party's district primaries, marking a significant victory for MK David Bitan, a leading opponent of allowing incumbents to compete in these races. Attorney Yair Gabay, a candidate in the Jerusalem district and one of the petitioners against the decision, also gained from the ruling, as it prevents incumbents from leveraging their established advantages in publicity, connections, and resources. The district primaries were originally designed to enable new representatives from local branches and municipalities to enter the Knesset, but the court's decision now closes this path to current MKs and ministers.

The main political loser is Minister Haim Katz, who had pushed for incumbents to be allowed to run in the districts, aiming to secure safer spots for MKs Eti Atiya and Keti Shitrit, both close to him. Katz sought to avoid the crowded national list, where tens of thousands of votes are needed, by placing them in districts requiring far fewer votes. Despite his efforts to organize and maintain these district slots, the Likud court nullified the move, dealing Katz a harsh blow. Although Katz helped Prime Minister Netanyahu secure eight reserved spots on the list, he lost the key provision he championed. Katz has faced criticism within Likud for conceding to Netanyahu and failing to gain political returns.

The ruling also challenges Katz's perceived control over the Likud Central Committee. While Netanyahu's initiatives, including the eight reserved spots, passed with a large majority, Katz's proposal for incumbents passed by only five votes and was ultimately overturned. The decision has significant implications for more than 35 senior Likud MKs and ministers competing for roughly 18 realistic spots on the national list. With Netanyahu's reserved spots and various representation guarantees, about half of the current faction could fail to secure reelection, sparking intense survival battles within the party.

Some MKs are reportedly exploring options outside Likud, including other right-wing parties or seeking reserved spots with Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, anticipating low chances in Likud's primaries. Netanyahu, dissatisfied with the current list composition, wishes to introduce new candidates and adjust existing names but faces challenges as some favored incumbents may struggle in the national primaries due to internal deals, organized voting blocs, and strategic voting.

The court's decision limits Netanyahu's ability to influence the candidate lineup through district primaries, which would have offered a safer path for some incumbents. Although Netanyahu secured most of his desired outcomes, Katz's initiative was nullified. Likud insiders speculate Netanyahu might seek to reinstate a "selection committee" mechanism if security conditions prevent the August 17 primaries. Previously, the party's constitution committee approved a plan for a five-member committee of local leaders to set the list if primaries were impossible due to security, but the Likud court rejected preemptive inclusion of such a clause. Should a severe security escalation occur, Netanyahu may petition again to allow this committee to form the list. Some party members half-jokingly suggest the ruling increases the likelihood of conflict with Iran, Hamas, or Hezbollah, reflecting suspicions among Netanyahu's rivals that he aims to regain greater control over the list composition.