Likud Gains as Shas Drops to Seven Seats in Latest Israeli Poll

A recent Maariv poll reveals shifts in Israeli political party standings amid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington and his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. The Likud party strengthens by two seats, reaching 22 mandates, while the overall coalition bloc remains steady at 49 mandates. The opposition bloc, known as the Change Bloc, holds 57 mandates, short of the 61 needed for a majority. However, the new Zionist Home party, led by Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, crosses the electoral threshold with four seats, potentially tipping the balance in favor of the Change Bloc.

Within the Zionist opposition, the parties "Together" and the Democrats each lose two seats, while "Yisrael!" under Gadi Eisenkot remains the largest party with 23 mandates. Arab parties maintain their combined strength at 10 mandates. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, continues its decline, holding only seven seats for the second consecutive poll. Other parties include Yisrael Beiteinu with 10 seats, Democratic Union with nine, United Torah Judaism with eight, and Otzma Yehudit with seven.

The poll also explores hypothetical scenarios, including a new party formed by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Dedi Simchi, which could secure 3.8% of the vote, equivalent to four seats. This scenario would reduce the Zionist Home party's support below the threshold to 2.4%, while slightly increasing the coalition bloc to 50 mandates. Among opposition voters, 45% prefer Gadi Eisenkot to lead the center-left bloc, followed by Naftali Bennett at 25%, Avigdor Lieberman at 11%, and Yair Golan at 10%.

In leadership preferences, Bennett leads Netanyahu by five percentage points (44% to 39%) as preferred prime minister, while Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by a wider margin of 10 points (48% to 38%). Netanyahu holds a narrow lead over Lieberman, 43% to 39%. Parties like Balad and Blue and White fail to pass the electoral threshold, polling at 1.8% and 1.2% respectively.

These results highlight ongoing volatility in Israeli politics, with coalition and opposition blocs jockeying for majority control ahead of potential elections.