Internal Polls Warn of Sharp Decline for Shas Party Ahead of Elections

Recent in-depth internal polls conducted for two different political blocs reveal a severe and ongoing crisis for the Shas party, forecasting a steep drop in its electoral strength. According to political analyst Amit Segal in Israel Hayom, one poll predicts Shas will secure only seven Knesset seats, while another projects just six, a significant fall from its current 11 seats.

The main concern is not only the number of seats lost but also the profile of voters abandoning the party. Historically, Shas relied on two key bases: the Haredi Sephardic community and the traditional Mizrahi public. The first poll indicates that most defectors are Haredi voters upset with the party's perceived inaction regarding legal pressures and alleged persecution of Torah scholars. Meanwhile, the second poll shows traditional voters, particularly those serving or with family in the military, distancing themselves due to frustration over conscription issues and budget allocations.

Segal notes that the recent turbulent legislative month in the Knesset, which cost Likud politically, was driven by Shas leader Aryeh Deri's efforts to reassure the Haredi public of his leadership's commitment. However, this move seemingly backfired, causing greater damage among traditional voters. If defectors shift to Likud or Otzma Yehudit, the right-wing bloc might absorb the impact. Yet, the polls also reveal increased voter abstention and a notable minority moving support to Gadi Eizenkot.

Despite these bleak forecasts, Segal cautions that Shas has historically outperformed polls in 15 election cycles, often mobilizing its base effectively on election day. Pollsters have struggled for decades to accurately sample Shas voters since Deri's return to leadership, underscoring the party's strong grassroots mobilization capabilities.