Aryeh Deri’s Shas Party Hits Record Low in Poll Amid Political Shifts

Aryeh Deri’s Shas party is facing a significant decline in support, polling at just seven Knesset seats, marking a historic low for the ultra-Orthodox Sephardic party. Analysts attribute this drop partly to anger within the Haredi community over the failure to pass a military service exemption law. Deri’s attempt to position Shas in the political center may have alienated some voters who favor stricter religious stances, as the party struggles to balance between hardline Haredi voters and those more open to integration with the state.

In the Arab political sphere, speculation surrounds a potential alliance between Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party and Jewish politician Yoav Segalovich. While the deal’s electoral impact remains uncertain, it could reshape public perception of Ra’am and influence coalition-building after the elections. The opposition risks losing a crucial seat, which could affect the overall parliamentary balance.

Within the right-wing bloc, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces challenges as the political landscape shifts. The rivalry between Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich has evolved, with Ben-Gvir polling at seven seats and Smotrich at five, forcing Netanyahu to consider whether to push for a right-wing merger or rely on Smotrich passing the electoral threshold independently. Additionally, the potential candidacies of Ofer Winter and Gilad Erdan add further uncertainty to the right-wing and center-right dynamics.

Smaller parties like those led by Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel are polling at four seats combined, suggesting they may not fully capitalize on momentum. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant faces unprecedented public criticism amid ongoing security challenges, with only 9% rating him very positively and 34% very negatively. Public confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership since the October 7 attacks remains low, with twice as many respondents doubting he has led Israel to any form of victory.

The political environment remains fluid as parties jockey for position ahead of the elections, with coalition formation likely to be complex and contingent on emerging alliances and voter shifts.