Shas Faces Electoral Risks as Aryeh Deri Balances Hardline and Traditional Voters

The recent reconciliation between Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef is reshaping the power dynamics within the Shas party, with significant electoral implications. Shas relies on two main voter bases: a Haredi Sephardic segment opposed to military conscription, and a broader traditional community, some of whom are close to Religious Zionism and have family members serving in the Israel Defense Forces. Strengthening Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef's influence, known for his firm stance against yeshiva conscription, may solidify Shas's hold on the Haredi base but risks alienating traditional voters who support IDF service.

A political source described Deri's dilemma as choosing between securing the "seven mandates in hand" by reinforcing the Haredi base or risking their loss in an attempt to maintain the full 11 seats Shas won in the last election. The party is wary of losing votes to other groups opposing conscription and is trying to balance halting Haredi vote leakage while retaining traditional supporters. To address this, Shas recently emphasized its respect for soldiers, with Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef praising IDF fighters as "messengers of the Holy One Blessed Be He" and recalling his father Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's teaching that one should kiss a soldier when seen.

This messaging aims to bridge the gap between the two constituencies Shas serves: the anti-conscription Haredi community and the traditional voters who have historically supported the party while serving in the military. However, tensions remain, as the Haredi base is dissatisfied with Shas's failure to pass lenient conscription laws, while the traditional base resents these efforts, given their own military commitments. Political analyst Lazer described Shas as a "black swan," caught between two dissatisfied groups, reflecting the party's complex internal challenges ahead of upcoming elections.