Shas Faces Sharp Electoral Decline in New Polls, Raising Concerns for Aryeh Deri
Recent in-depth studies conducted for two different political blocs reveal a severe crisis for the Shas party, indicating a sharp drop in its electoral strength. According to analyst Amit Segal in his weekly column for Israel Hayom, one poll projects Shas winning only seven Knesset seats, while another predicts six, compared to the 11 seats it currently holds. The critical issue is not just the number of seats lost but the identity of the voters abandoning the party.
Historically, Shas has relied on two main constituencies: Sephardic Haredi Jews and traditional Mizrahi voters. However, the polls show differing trends. One study finds that most defectors are Haredi voters disappointed by Shas's perceived inaction regarding the protection of Torah scholars. The other study points to voters serving in the military or with children in the army distancing themselves due to frustration over draft evasion and budget allocations.
Segal notes that the recent intense legislative month, which came at a political cost to Likud, was largely driven by Shas leader Aryeh Deri’s efforts to reassure the Haredi public that they are not being abandoned. Yet, this move may have alienated traditional voters. Regarding where these voters are shifting, Segal suggests that if they move to Likud or Otzma Yehudit, the right-wing bloc can absorb the loss. However, the polls also indicate a decline in voter enthusiasm and turnout, with a small but notable portion switching support to Gadi Eizenkot.
The potential weakening of Shas might explain discrepancies in various polls, especially since some show Haredi parties maintaining strength despite the natural growth of the Haredi population. Segal cautions that Shas has historically outperformed poll predictions in 15 election cycles, partly due to the difficulty pollsters face in sampling its voter base. Since Aryeh Deri’s return to leadership, Shas has repeatedly exceeded early forecasts.
