Aryeh Deri’s Shas Hits Record Low in Poll Amid Political Shifts in Israel

Aryeh Deri’s Shas party is facing a historic low in recent polls, securing only seven Knesset seats, a significant drop attributed partly to the controversy over the failure to pass the military exemption law for ultra-Orthodox Jews. Political analysts note that while Shas traditionally polls lower than its actual election results, seven seats remain notably weak for the party. The split within the ultra-Orthodox electorate, between those supporting military service and hardline Sephardic Haredim, is seen as a key factor in this decline.

Meanwhile, the potential alliance between the Arab party Ra’am and Jewish politician Yoav Segalovich is stirring debate. Although it is unclear if Segalovich will officially join Ra’am, such a partnership could reshape public perception of Ra’am beyond its Islamic Movement roots. Analysts emphasize that the real impact of this alliance would be felt in post-election coalition negotiations rather than in immediate electoral gains.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is closely monitoring the evolving dynamics within the right-wing bloc, particularly the fluctuating support between Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Recent polls show Ben-Gvir with seven seats and Smotrich with five, a reversal from earlier projections. Netanyahu faces strategic decisions on whether to push for a right-wing unification or rely on Smotrich passing the electoral threshold independently. The potential candidacies of Ofer Winter and Gilad Erdan add further uncertainty to the political landscape.

The poll also highlights the challenges faced by the defense establishment, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant receiving historically low approval ratings amid ongoing security concerns. Public skepticism about political motives influencing military appointments is rising, reflecting broader unease about Israel’s security situation following recent conflicts.

Overall, the political scene is marked by fragmentation and shifting alliances, with key parties and leaders navigating complex voter sentiments and strategic calculations ahead of the upcoming elections.