Only One of Three Israeli Teams Expected to Advance in European Football Qualifiers
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
Three Israeli football teams start European qualifiers with low chances of advancing; Maccabi Tel Aviv has the best odds, while Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Tel Aviv face tough challenges and likely early exits.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Maccabi Tel Aviv has a 63% chance to pass Sheriff Tiraspol but only 15% to reach Europa League group stage.
- Beitar Jerusalem faces AEK Larnaca with a 39% chance to reach the third qualifying round and 8% for group stage.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv returns after 12 years, with a 36% chance to beat Ludogorets but only 4% to reach group stage.
- FootballRankings gives Beitar and Hapoel even lower chances, 2.6% and 0.7% respectively, to reach group stages.
- Only one of the three Israeli teams is expected to advance beyond the early European qualifying rounds.
On July 27, 2026, three Israeli football clubs, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Beitar Jerusalem, and Hapoel Tel Aviv, begin their European competition campaigns. Each team faces challenging qualifiers with varying chances of progressing further in their respective tournaments.
Maccabi Tel Aviv, the Israeli State Cup holder, will face Sheriff Tiraspol from Moldova in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League. According to Football Meets Data, Maccabi has a 63% chance to advance past Sheriff but only a 15% chance to reach the Europa League group stage. They are predicted to lose in the third qualifying round and subsequently in the playoff round for the UEFA Conference League, ending their European run with a 52% probability of participating in some European competition.
Beitar Jerusalem, the league runner-up, starts in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League against AEK Larnaca from Cyprus. Unlike Maccabi, Beitar has no fallback route if eliminated. Their chances are lower, with a 39% probability to reach the third qualifying round and only 8% to make it to the Conference League group stage. FootballRankings offers an even more pessimistic forecast of 2.6% for Beitar to reach the group stage.
Hapoel Tel Aviv returns to European competition after 12 years and faces a tough opponent in Ludogorets Razgrad from Bulgaria in the second qualifying round of the Conference League. Football Meets Data assigns Hapoel a 36% chance to advance past Ludogorets but only a 4% chance to reach the group stage. Ludogorets themselves have a 17% chance to reach the group stage. FootballRankings gives Hapoel a mere 0.7% chance to progress to the group stage.
Overall, the forecasts suggest that only one of the three Israeli teams is likely to advance beyond the early qualifying rounds, highlighting the tough European competition ahead for Israeli clubs this season.
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