Expert Explains Arab States' Growing Vulnerability to Iranian Attacks Amid Failed Diplomacy
Arab states in the Gulf and Jordan are increasingly targeted by Iranian aggression, yet their options remain limited to diplomatic negotiations that have so far failed, according to Dr. Michal Yaari, an expert on the Arab world from Ben-Gurion University. She highlights that despite massive military investments, these states remain vulnerable, exposing the failure of their long-standing strategy of appeasement toward Iran. This approach, based on avoiding provocation to maintain regional stability, has not prevented them from becoming primary victims in the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran since February.
Dr. Yaari notes a strong sense of betrayal among Arab states, especially as Iran attacks them rather than Israel. The United Arab Emirates, for example, was a crucial economic lifeline for Iran during sanctions, hosting hundreds of thousands of Iranian citizens and thousands of Iranian companies. Yet, Iran has chosen to retaliate against these Gulf states despite their economic support. Qatar and Oman, which tried to prevent US military action against Iran, also find themselves embroiled in the conflict. Iran justifies its attacks by citing these countries' cooperation with the US, including hosting military bases.
Iran avoids attacking Israel to prevent opening another front, as Israel is capable of a strong military response, unlike the Arab states. Dr. Yaari expresses skepticism about a changed future for Arab states given their strategic predicament: they cannot rely on their military strength, regional alliances, or US support, which is reluctant to engage in distant conflicts. Consequently, diplomacy remains their only viable path, though it is severely constrained.
Arab states have learned that US-Iran negotiations have not addressed critical issues such as Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, support for proxies in the Middle East, or the nuclear problem in depth. The partial agreement discussed mainly addressed the Strait of Hormuz's status but failed to improve the broader security situation. Dr. Yaari quotes the Qatari emir acknowledging Iran's permanent presence as a neighbor and the limited influence of US interests, which may shift with changing administrations.
She concludes that the military outcomes of the conflict have been minimal, with unrealistic goals like destroying Iran's nuclear program or regime change. Arab states question the benefits of the US-Israel-Iran confrontation, emphasizing the damage they endure as bystanders forced to pay the price. This reality poses a complex and difficult challenge for the Gulf and neighboring Arab countries.
