Iran Shifts Focus to Jordan in Gulf Attacks, Avoids Saudi Arabia and UAE for Now

In the latest escalation of regional tensions, Iran has concentrated its recent missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, deliberately sparing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which were primary targets in previous rounds of conflict. Since the collapse of the US-Iran understanding and the resumption of hostilities, Tehran has launched assaults against at least six countries allied with Washington, aiming to destabilize the Gulf region and pressure US forces stationed there.

Unlike earlier phases where the UAE faced heavy bombardment, including around 600 missiles and 2,200 drones, Iran has so far refrained from significant strikes against the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The UAE, which maintains close ties with both Washington and Jerusalem, has expressed solidarity with Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, the countries currently under attack. Saudi Arabia, which only experienced limited attacks recently, has also engaged in direct talks with Tehran in recent months, seeking separate agreements to safeguard itself amid the conflict.

Jordan has borne the brunt of Iran's recent aggression, enduring nearly 40 missile and drone strikes in the past week, including an attack that killed two American soldiers. This marked the fourth assault on US forces in Jordan within five days, causing numerous injuries and damage to military helicopters. Jordan's strategic importance has grown as the Pentagon relocated troops from Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar to safer bases in Jordan and Israel, especially after other regional allies restricted US military operations on their soil.

Kuwait has also been heavily targeted, suffering over 100 missile and drone strikes last week, following the capture of four Iranian Revolutionary Guard operatives attempting to infiltrate the country in May. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kurdish areas in Iraq have similarly faced attacks. Reports from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal indicate that Iran has adapted its missile technology to evade US air defenses, deploying high-speed, maneuverable projectiles. Washington suspects that Iran may be receiving targeting assistance from China or Russia, raising concerns about Tehran's enhanced strike capabilities.

According to the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), out of approximately 200 Iranian missiles and drones launched since the fighting resumed, only three targeted Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined. Iran has also avoided attacking Israel to prevent a broader escalation that could draw Israel into the conflict. The current pattern suggests Tehran is recalibrating its priorities, possibly influenced by ongoing diplomatic contacts with Gulf states and strategic calculations regarding its adversaries.