Iran May Target Gulf States, Jordan Instead of Israel, Expert Says

An Iranian strategy of avoiding a large-scale attack on Israel, instead focusing pressure on Persian Gulf states and Jordan, may be a precursor to a much larger regional war, according to Iranian affairs researcher Eliyahu Yosian. Yosian believes Iran is currently deterred from attacking Israel by the latter's missile defense capabilities, supported by the U.S., and the potential for a devastating Israeli response that could outweigh any gains from an Iranian strike. This assessment suggests Iran finds it more advantageous to conserve resources by targeting closer nations like Jordan and Gulf states, which it perceives as less capable of retaliatory action.

This strategic calculation is influenced by significant U.S. economic pressure on Iran, particularly targeting its oil sector and maritime trade routes. Yosian estimates Iran's daily oil exports have plummeted from 2.5 million barrels under the Biden administration to around 250,000 barrels, largely through illicit channels. A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, including facilities on Khark Island, further exacerbates this situation. Oil revenues are critical for Iran's state functions, military, and social welfare, with Yosian estimating 85% of its financial needs are met by oil income.

With diplomatic avenues narrowing, particularly Iran's refusal to relinquish enriched uranium and meet U.S. and Israeli demands, Yosian foresees a potentially more destructive phase of the conflict. In this scenario, Iran might target critical infrastructure beyond military sites, including Saudi Arabian and UAE oil fields and water facilities. Iran could also attempt to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb strait and attack undersea communication cables near the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global trade and connectivity.

China has reportedly set conditions for economic support, demanding Iran refrain from attacking key maritime routes, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and seek a resolution with the U.S. Yosian sees no easy economic solutions for Iran, increasing the likelihood of military escalation and attempts to draw the U.S. and its allies into a wider conflict. Tehran's primary hope, Yosian suggests, lies in political shifts in the U.S. and Israel, potentially anticipating a weakening of Donald Trump's position after U.S. midterm elections and the fall of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which could open new negotiation channels on more favorable terms.