Iran's Military Calculations Driven by Economic Crisis, Expert Says

Iran's decision to attack targets in the Persian Gulf states and Jordan, rather than Israel, is driven by a calculation that such strikes are more feasible and less risky, according to Iran expert Eliyahu Yossian. He explained that Iran likely views direct confrontation with Israel, especially with U.S. support, as too costly due to high interception rates and disproportionate Israeli retaliation. Consequently, Iran is focusing its limited resources on striking Gulf states and Jordan, which it perceives as less capable of mounting a significant response.

Yossian attributes Iran's aggressive actions to severe U.S. sanctions, particularly impacting its oil exports. He noted a drastic drop in daily oil sales from 2.5 million barrels under the Biden administration to just 250,000 barrels through the black market currently, largely due to a tight U.S. naval blockade. This financial crisis, stemming from the inability to sell oil, which previously accounted for 85% of the regime's revenue, forces Iran to seek alternative means to sustain its economy and military.

The expert believes Iran is not currently seeking to enrich uranium beyond 450 kilograms or comply with U.S. and Israeli demands, despite its dire financial situation. Yossian predicts a larger, more widespread conflict is inevitable, involving attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil fields and water sources, and the closure of the Bab al-Mandab strait. He also suggests Iran might attempt to disrupt internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Efforts by Iran to resolve its economic woes through diplomacy, such as parliamentary speaker Kalibaf's visit to China, have reportedly been rebuffed. China has conditioned relations on Iran refraining from attacking shipping lanes, attacking Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and resolving its issues with the U.S. Yossian concludes that Iran's current strategy, described as 'let my soul die with the Philistines,' aims to provoke a larger war with the U.S. and its allies. Tehran also harbors hopes that upcoming U.S. midterm elections and potential changes in Israeli leadership could open new avenues for dialogue favorable to Iran.