Iran Avoids Direct Strike on Israel, Targets Gulf States Amid Sanctions

Despite possessing missiles capable of reaching Israel, Iran has not yet launched a direct attack, opting instead to target countries in the Persian Gulf and Jordan. This strategy, according to Iranian studies researcher Eliyahu Yosipian, is a calculated move driven by severe U.S. sanctions that have crippled Iran's oil exports. Yosipian suggests that Iran perceives attacking Israel as less advantageous due to Israel's advanced missile defense systems, which intercept a significant portion of incoming projectiles, and the disproportionate response Israel could mount. Consequently, Iran is focusing its resources on attacks against the Persian Gulf nations and Jordan, which it believes are less capable of mounting a deterrent response.

The researcher explained that Iran's actions are a response to U.S. sanctions and a near-total halt in its oil exports. While Iran exported approximately 2.5 million barrels of oil per day under the Biden administration, current exports through the black market are estimated at only 250,000 barrels daily. Facing financial difficulties in maintaining state functions, the military, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Iranian regime views attacks on its neighbors as one of its few remaining options.

Yosipian believes that Iran is unwilling to concede to U.S. and Israeli demands regarding enriched uranium and other issues, despite its dire economic situation. This stance, he warns, increases the risk of a large-scale conflict. Potential escalations could include attacks on Saudi Arabia's and the UAE's oil and water infrastructure, attempts to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and damage to underwater internet cables near the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Israel maintains a high level of readiness for a potential surprise attack from Iran. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are continuing to bolster homeland defense systems, update operational plans, and consider various response scenarios.