Israel Prepares for Solo Military Action Against Iran Amid US Hesitation

Jerusalem is preparing for the possibility that Israel may have to conduct independent military operations in Iran without the United States, due to President Donald Trump's current lack of interest in resuming hostilities. Trump's focus is on an upcoming summit in China with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, though a window for action remains before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027. Efforts are ongoing to persuade Washington to resume attacks, including a trip by Mossad Chief Roman Gofman to the US. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening the Political-Security Cabinet on Sunday evening for the first time since the transition to a caretaker government, pushing for military action despite Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir's reservations about the timing and lack of American backing. Netanyahu also mentioned the "existential threat" from Iran when calling on Gadi Eisenkot to form a unity government, though he concealed Gofman's mission from him. The security establishment currently does not identify an immediate threat or preparations for an attack from Iran, but the Intelligence Directorate (Aman) continues to update its target bank, and the Air Force is learning lessons from Operation "Lion's Roar" to maintain air superiority. The IDF is proceeding cautiously due to the complex political situation, seeking strategic and budgetary certainty for long-term decision-making across all open fronts. Security officials emphasize the need to clarify the objective of another round of fighting. Iran still possesses approximately 450 kg of highly enriched uranium, whose location is known to Western intelligence, as nuclear targets were barely attacked in the previous operation. While Netanyahu speaks of toppling the Tehran regime, the security establishment believes this goal is difficult to achieve through air operations alone. Concerns in Jerusalem are also growing due to the lack of oversight on enriched material, following a Reuters report of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting that expressed alarm over a secret enrichment facility in Isfahan, known as IFEP. Iran reported the facility last year but refuses to allow inspectors access or review its plans, and the IAEA states it does not know its exact location or if nuclear material is stored there. Iranian nuclear expert Avner Vilan, who held senior security positions, warned that the report raises disturbing questions about the scope of Iran's program and Israel's and the US's ability to monitor it. Meanwhile, Tehran declares it will not allow even "one particle" of enriched material to leave the country. On the American military front, naval deployments in US Central Command (CENTCOM) are similar to March, including about 17 warships. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to arrive, potentially replacing the USS George Washington rather than augmenting the force. According to data from the Institute for National Security Studies and researcher Stephen Cohen, approximately 200 US fighter jets and 200 refueling aircraft are deployed in the region, but unlike March, US bombers have not yet been deployed to regional bases. Since mid-October, at least 16 US transport aircraft have landed at Ovda base, and the US has transferred a Patriot intercept system to Israel, alongside reinforcing air defense arrays and strengthening maritime cooperation between Israel and Greece. Conversely, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran has the technical capability to extend missile range beyond 2,000 km, and reducing the warhead weight of the "Khorramshahr 4" missile could extend its range to 3,000-4,000 km, potentially reaching US bases and parts of Europe. The agency also mentioned the development of intercontinental missiles with ranges of 10,000-13,000 km to cover the US, following statements by Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohabi and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei about a response "without geographical limitations." Meanwhile, amid reports of senior US officials moving to military bases, it has emerged that Israel provided Washington with concrete intelligence on an Iranian intention to target senior administration officials, including President Trump, with drone attacks.