Israel Weighs Unilateral Strike on Iran Amid US Hesitation

Israel is considering a potential military operation against Iran without direct US involvement, as President Donald Trump has not shown readiness to resume joint strikes. The Israeli military (IDF) is preparing for various scenarios due to the lack of international oversight on Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, but military leadership insists the government must clearly define the objectives of any campaign. While the defense establishment does not currently detect signs of an imminent attack, military intelligence is actively updating information on potential targets, and the air force is refining its capabilities based on past operations. A primary challenge remains the uncertainty surrounding Israel's long-term strategy, with security sources emphasizing the need for political leadership to articulate desired outcomes before any operation.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocates for renewed military action against Iran, viewing its nuclear and missile programs as an existential threat. However, disagreements exist between political and military leaders regarding the timing of such an operation. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir opposes immediate action due to the absence of American support, and the military requires clear strategic directives to assess necessary resources and expected results. The political situation in Israel adds complexity, with Netanyahu planning to convene the military-political cabinet for the first time under a caretaker government. The Iranian threat was also a topic in Netanyahu's call with Gadi Eisenkot concerning a potential unity government.

Concerns over Iran's approximately 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium are a significant factor. Israel fears Tehran could use these stockpiles to advance its nuclear program, especially given the lack of full international control. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed growing concern over Iran's nuclear facility in Isfahan, to which access has been denied to inspectors. While the IAEA report does not confirm uranium enrichment at the site, Iran has stated it will not export its enriched material, complicating international control efforts. Israel believes continuous monitoring and readiness for various actions are necessary, but any operation must have clearly defined political and military goals.

Despite the lack of a decision on new strikes, the US is reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East, with approximately 17 warships, including two aircraft carriers, and an estimated 200 fighter jets in the region. The US has also bolstered Israel's defensive capabilities, providing an additional Patriot system and increasing air defense assets. Meanwhile, Iran's Tasnim agency reported the technical possibility of increasing ballistic missile ranges to over 2,000 kilometers, potentially up to 3,000-4,000 kilometers for the Khorramshahr-4 missile, and theoretically intercontinental ballistic missiles. Iran has also warned that any response to Israeli or US actions would not be geographically limited.

Israel continues diplomatic and intelligence efforts to gain US approval for further military action, including a trip to the US by Mossad chief Roman Gofman. Israel has shared intelligence with Washington regarding potential Iranian threats, including drone attacks against US officials, prompting some to relocate to secure military facilities. However, President Trump has not changed his stance on immediate joint operations, with his focus currently on an upcoming trip to China. The transition to a new US Congress on January 3, 2027, could also impact future decision-making.

The IDF stresses that any new operation against Iran must have specific strategic objectives. Previous strikes achieved some military results but did not resolve issues with Iran's nuclear program, and Operation "Eagle's Roar" largely avoided targeting nuclear facilities. While Netanyahu has spoken of regime change, achieving this solely through airstrikes is seen as highly challenging. The military also considers maintaining air superiority and requires long-term strategic and budgetary stability for potential multi-front actions. Although Israel prefers joint action with the US, the lack of immediate US readiness compels consideration of a unilateral scenario.