Netanyahu and Eisenkot Stalemate as Knesset Power Shifts Loom

Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar party and tasked with forming a government, is pursuing coalition agreements through three potential avenues, but significant disagreements persist with potential partners. His primary focus is on securing a deal with ultra-Orthodox parties, while simultaneously exploring cooperation with Arab factions and the Likud party. However, negotiations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have shown no signs of a breakthrough, according to Ynet.

Negotiating teams from Yashar and Likud were scheduled to meet on Sunday, November 15, to discuss the possibility of a broad government that could include the Religious Zionist party and representatives from the "Change Bloc." A personal meeting between Netanyahu and Eisenkot is not currently planned. Despite Netanyahu's public calls for unconditional negotiations, fundamental differences remain.

The main obstacle to a unity government is Eisenkot's insistence on leading the future coalition himself, having received the mandate from President Yitzhak Herzog. While he is open to Likud joining, he rejects any discussion of a rotation for the prime minister position. Sources close to Eisenkot view Netanyahu's initiative as a political maneuver to disrupt the Change Bloc's talks with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Eisenkot has previously offered Likud a role in a government led by him, but Likud aims to maintain Netanyahu's leading role. A senior Likud official suggested Netanyahu might seek the premiership first under a rotation agreement, or even a commitment for Likud's support in the May 2028 presidential elections. However, no core principles for cooperation have been agreed upon.

Further complicating matters is Eisenkot's stance on Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party, with whom he has ruled out negotiations. Meanwhile, clandestine talks with the ultra-Orthodox parties continue, though without substantial progress. Key disagreements revolve around legislation and religion-state issues, with potential partners unwilling to fully accept the Haredi demands. A source within the Change Bloc expressed pessimism, estimating that even maximum concessions would fall short of the ultra-Orthodox parties' minimum expectations.

The situation is further complicated by Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, who opposes a minority government reliant on Arab party support, thus increasing the importance of the Haredi negotiations. Yet, the lack of compromise hinders Eisenkot's ability to form a stable coalition.

Concurrently, Yashar representatives are engaged with Arab factions, focusing on parliamentary votes that could shift control of key Knesset positions. A scenario involving Arab abstentions to support a government is considered a last resort due to Lieberman's opposition. The Change Bloc aims to leverage its parliamentary support to strengthen its standing, with votes expected next week that could strip Likud of control over two significant posts.

On Tuesday, November 17, a vote is scheduled for the Knesset Speaker position, where Yashar's Matan Kahana is expected to replace Likud's current speaker. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman may head the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, currently held by Likud MK Boaz Bismut. These potential personnel changes could enhance the Change Bloc's influence before a new government is formed, posing an additional political challenge for Netanyahu amidst coalition talks, though the outcomes remain uncertain.

Likud acknowledges that current negotiations with Eisenkot might fail. If Eisenkot cannot fulfill his mandate, a national unity government proposal could resurface, potentially weakening Eisenkot's negotiating position while allowing Netanyahu to secure more favorable terms for Likud. For now, the upcoming Sunday meeting is viewed largely as a political gesture, with the Change Bloc's primary efforts focused on reaching an agreement with the ultra-Orthodox parties.