Netanyahu Accused of Inciting Internal Strife and Iran Conflict to Prevent Ouster

Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly employing a range of tactics, including exacerbating internal tensions, inciting against Arab citizens, exploiting settler violence, and fabricating security crises, to remain in power. These actions are aimed at creating an emergency situation that would disrupt the transfer of authority and prevent the formation of a new government led by Gadi Eisenkot, who faces complex security and political challenges. Military analyst Amos Harel noted that the current situation between the outgoing government, the "Change Bloc," and the security establishment is unprecedented in Israel's history. Harel suggests Netanyahu, after failing to achieve his desired election results through incitement, is now attempting to ignite a war that could save him from being ousted.

This occurs as U.S. President Donald Trump appears disinclined to escalate conflict with Iran, noting positive momentum in talks. However, Trump is reportedly weakened following the Republican Party's significant losses in the midterm congressional elections, which reduced his political and military maneuverability. Despite this, Netanyahu reportedly hopes to alter the course of events, with his recent statements indicating a goal of preventing Eisenkot's government formation through any means, including a "sham" unity government proposal or the creation of a new security crisis.

Netanyahu's recent speeches have highlighted perceived internal threats, including terrorism and the danger of Iranian nuclear weapons, alongside his focus on inciting against Arab citizens. His stated aim for a potential military operation against Iran is regime change, a goal that previously failed. Harel suggests that an attack with U.S. approval, or a provocation designed to elicit an Iranian response, could influence the government formation process in Israel.

Netanyahu's efforts to stay in power allegedly include escalating incitement that could lead to attacks on Eisenkot's allies or extremist settler violence in the West Bank. The most significant threat, however, remains Iran, where Israel's internal political conflict could reignite a regional war. The Israeli military's Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, reportedly worked to curb Netanyahu's plans for an Iranian strike before the elections, a struggle that has now resumed during the transitional government period, prompting messages from Eisenkot to the Prime Minister and the Attorney General.

Intelligence reports indicate Iran is rebuilding its missile capabilities and may return to its nuclear program, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly interested in acquiring a nuclear bomb. Analysts believe Iran might conduct a nuclear test if the opportunity arises. Eisenkot's public disagreement centers on the urgency of intelligence and the necessity of a preemptive military move amidst government formation talks and Trump's differing stance.

Meanwhile, the appointment of Avigdor Lieberman as head of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee is seen as crucial. Lieberman, with his experience, is expected to hold the outgoing government, particularly security chiefs, accountable. He stated his role would ensure "no military moves for political purposes" and marked the first step toward forming a stable government. The article also notes a shift in American public opinion regarding Israel, influenced by the Democratic midterm victories and statements blaming the Iran war for Republican losses. This shift, coupled with increasing international criticism of settler violence and Israeli actions in Gaza, could lead to U.S. and European restrictions on Israel, requiring a future Eisenkot government to pursue reconciliation with the international community.