Israeli Opposition Fears Netanyahu May Ignite Iran Conflict to Stay in Power

Israeli opposition leaders are concerned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might provoke Iran into escalating military conflict to prevent the formation of a new government led by his political rival, Gadi Eisenkot. These fears stem from Netanyahu's perceived attempts to leverage the ongoing political uncertainty and shifting stances of U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran. The Israeli public is reportedly weary of prolonged political instability and election cycles.

Eisenkot has secured enough Knesset recommendations to be tasked with forming a government, but coalition negotiations are proving difficult. During a 42-day transition period, Netanyahu remains in power. He recently met with Eisenkot to brief him on the alleged renewed threat from Iran, a meeting that occurred amid warnings from Eisenkot and his allies that Netanyahu might use this period to reignite conflict. They argue that Netanyahu, as head of a transitional government, lacks the authority for such critical decisions and may be using the threat of war to force them into a unity government he cannot otherwise form.

Netanyahu's political maneuvering is further complicated by Trump's inconsistent policy on Iran. While Trump has signaled a desire to de-escalate, U.S. Central Command has reportedly alerted Israel to prepare for potential renewed conflict. Mossad chief Roman Hoffman is in Washington for discussions related to Netanyahu's efforts to persuade Trump to resume military action against Iran. The shifting U.S. position creates significant uncertainty for Israel's strategic planning.

Despite public dissatisfaction, Netanyahu has maintained power since the October 7th Hamas attack by forming an emergency unity government. Sources suggest he might use a renewed conflict with Iran to justify a similar arrangement, potentially pressuring Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman, who have publicly stated they would not join such a government. Some analysts believe Trump, now free from electoral constraints, might be more unpredictable.

While intelligence suggests Iran is resuming ballistic missile development and its nuclear program, a consensus among Israeli security officials is that Iran does not pose an immediate threat. Former officials and Ehud Barak have warned that Netanyahu might orchestrate a "serious provocation" to force Iran's hand, thereby disrupting the formation of a new government. The outgoing Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, has reportedly blocked the formation of a defense committee under Lieberman's leadership, leaving Netanyahu with fewer institutional checks. The IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, is seen as a key figure currently preventing a rush to war, emphasizing the need to avoid actions that could jeopardize the democratic process during the government transition.