US, Iran Face Strategic Crossroads Amid Regional Instability

The United States and Iran are at a critical juncture, forced to re-evaluate their strategies following recent conflicts, with Israel increasingly reliant on Washington. Sima Shine, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, notes that upcoming Israeli elections, potential government changes, and significant Republican losses in US midterms are compelling key regional and international players to reassess their positions. Former US President Donald Trump acknowledged the Iran war's impact on the Republican defeat, while Gulf states fear renewed hostilities could cripple energy infrastructure and communications. Trump, seeking to advance other foreign policy goals in his final two years, faces pressure to demonstrate tangible results beyond reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the primary objective being Iran's nuclear program.

The US administration is divided on how to proceed, with some advocating for a deal and others for further military action. Trump appears hesitant to pursue a destructive offensive, yet requires a win. His administration is employing economic pressure, including an oil export blockade, and attempting a "land blockade" by pressuring neighboring states, though Shine doubts its full success. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian stated the supreme leader's directive is to end the "neither war nor peace" situation, highlighting the dilemma of whether economic pressure will force Iran to concede.

Iran faces a severe economic crisis, exacerbated by gas shortages, with fears of social unrest. Internal divisions exist within the Iranian leadership: one faction favors a deal with the US to rebuild the economy, while another, supported by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, insists on achieving goals from a position of strength. These goals include full sanctions relief, US troop withdrawal, non-aggression guarantees, and recognition as a regional power. Iran believes it can withstand further attacks, citing damage to US assets in previous conflicts and the global economic impact of continued hostilities. Tehran threatens more significant retaliation, potentially including ground operations against Gulf states and expanded missile reach.

Adding to the complexity, Iran is increasingly discussing revising its nuclear strategy, including potentially withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and developing nuclear weapons. A bill in the Iranian parliament proposes leaving the NPT if the US attacks nuclear facilities. Iran is also fortifying its nuclear sites. The regime grapples with exiting its economic crisis without compromising its core principles, weighing the risks of a new military initiative against the benefits of reaching agreements that allow it to survive Trump's presidency while continuing its nuclear program.

Israel finds itself heavily dependent on the US for key decisions, particularly concerning Iran. Despite inflicting significant damage on Hamas and Hezbollah, these groups remain potent threats. While a favorable situation emerged in Syria after Bashar Assad's ouster, Israel failed to leverage it for long-term security agreements against Iran. The nuclear threat persists, with Iran retaining enriched uranium and the knowledge to develop weapons, a capability Israel cannot neutralize alone. Israel's international standing has deteriorated, with declining support in the US, especially among younger generations. Shine suggests Israel has an opportunity to reassess its national security policy, explore new diplomatic avenues, and move beyond automatic alignment with existing courses of action.