News Commentators Fail Again, Need to Air Past Predictions
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
News commentator Yoram Dori criticizes fellow analysts for consistently failing to predict political outcomes, yet maintaining unwavering confidence. He argues that commentators often shape reality rather than explain it, turning briefings into headlines and fabricated facts into crises. Dori suggests airing past predictions and encouraging commentators to admit uncertainty. The article notes that regardless of future government formation, commentators will claim they foresaw the result.
The story in 4 lines · by baba
- News commentators consistently fail to predict political events but remain confident, according to Yoram Dori.
- Analysts often shape reality by turning briefings into headlines and fabricated facts into crises.
- Dori suggests airing past commentator predictions and encouraging admissions of uncertainty.
- Commentators will claim they predicted the outcome of government formation, regardless of the result.
News commentators have once again failed to accurately predict political events, according to Yoram Dori. He observes that many analysts who spent months explaining what was expected to happen were unable to foresee the actual outcomes. Regardless of whether a government is formed or not, commentators will explain that they predicted it all along. Dori notes that commentators do not lose self-confidence even when their predictions are wrong; instead, their subsequent analyses become more decisive.
Commentators who predicted a party's downfall now explain its success as expected, and those who foresaw a landslide victory explain the defeat as inevitable. Dori questions why no one asks if they weren't saying the exact opposite before. Even before the dust settles from an election, studio analysts claim to know who will be prime minister and who will be left out, and even when a yet-to-be-formed government will collapse, with the only missing piece being politicians agreeing to form it.
Dori also criticizes "body language" commentators who interpret a leader's smile as a closed deal, silence as secret negotiations, denial as progress, and a trip to the restroom as a coalition crisis. He also points to "positional" commentators who label their party's loss as a "strategic achievement" and an opponent's victory as a "Pyrrhic victory," always portraying the public as wrong and the commentator as infallible.
While acknowledging that professional and honest commentators can make mistakes, Dori distinguishes between cautious assessment and absolute prophecy, likening the latter to an astrology show. He argues that the problem is particularly severe when commentary becomes a tool to shape reality rather than explain it, turning briefings into headlines, headlines into "facts," and fabricated facts into non-existent political crises.
Dori suggests that before commentators explain what will happen tomorrow, they should broadcast what they said yesterday, not as punishment, but as a public service. He also proposes inviting at least one commentator to the studio who can admit, "I don't know." While it remains uncertain if a government will be formed soon or who will lead it, Dori is certain that commentators will claim they predicted the outcome.
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