Lieberman Warns Minority Government Will Return Netanyahu to Power

Gadi Eisenkot officially began coalition negotiations on Sunday, November 8, after receiving the mandate to form a government from President Yitzhak Herzog. His first meeting was with Naftali Bennett, leader of the Yamina party. On Monday, November 9, Eisenkot is scheduled to meet with Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, whose stance has become a major obstacle to forming a 48-member government.

Lieberman refuses to join a minority government reliant on the votes of Arab parties, stating he will vote against it, potentially leaving it short of the necessary Knesset support. Instead, he advocates for a 61-member coalition that includes ultra-Orthodox parties. This position has generated distrust among some of Eisenkot's bloc partners, who suspect Lieberman of maneuvering for a future power struggle should neither Eisenkot nor Benjamin Netanyahu succeed in forming a government. Their theory is that Lieberman aims to secure 61 signatures with Orthodox parties to then contend for the premiership himself.

Lieberman, however, rejected this interpretation in an interview with Ynet, calling a minority government a "gift" to Netanyahu. He predicted such a government would quickly collapse, allowing Netanyahu to return to power within six months with at least 70 Knesset seats. Lieberman cited the previous "change government's" short tenure of just over a year as evidence that a government dependent on Arab parties would last even less time.

Lieberman also addressed his apparent willingness to compromise with the ultra-Orthodox parties, having previously eased restrictions on cooperation and indicated openness to concessions, including on the conscription law. Following criticism, he clarified that this flexibility does not mean abandoning core principles. He stated on X that any conscription law must be able to withstand High Court of Justice review, dismissing media reports to the contrary as a smear campaign. Lieberman accused opponents of his talks with the Orthodox parties of preferring a government reliant on Ra'am and the United Arab List, citing their alleged public solidarity with Hamas and accusations of genocide against Israel.

Lieberman reiterated his refusal to support such a cabinet, deeming it a security threat and a path back to Netanyahu's leadership. He argued that difficult decisions and compromises are necessary to avoid new elections and end Netanyahu's era. Lieberman also denied obstructing Eisenkot for personal ambition, calling the premiership an opportunity rather than an obsession, and stated he has resisted political maneuvering for years.

Another point of contention is the repeal of judicial reform laws, which Eisenkot's bloc intends to pursue. Yair Golan, leader of the Democratic Movement, suggested that if Lieberman opposes repealing these laws and seeks a coalition with the Orthodox parties without their conscription, he should form a government with Netanyahu instead.